President Trump’s press conference this afternoon on the conflict with Iran was a reminder that when assessing the Islamic Republic’s threats, you have to include the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the rest of the proxies. The president specifically addressed concerns about oil-price fluctuations and other financial implications of Iran and its proxies trying to close shipping lanes, but he also talked about Iran’s ambitions to “take over the Middle East” more generally.
That includes Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been rearming and restocking its Iranian-directed outpost. Reuters reports:
“Speaking to Reuters weeks before Hezbollah entered the regional war, the first Lebanese source confirmed that the group had been rebuilding its military capabilities ‘in parallel’ with Israel’s campaign to destroy them.
“The pace of Hezbollah’s attacks this week provides clues about its weapons stocks.
“The group launched 60 drones and rockets on March 2, the first day it attacked Israel, and a similar number the following day, said the second foreign official, who tracks Hezbollah’s activities closely.
“But on March 4, Hezbollah launched more than double that number of projectiles, a sign it had been able to draw from its larger caches, the official said.
“ALMA, an Israeli think tank that monitors security on Israel’s northern border, said it assessed that Hezbollah’s arsenal on the eve of its attack included approximately 25,000 rockets and missiles, most of them short- and medium-range.”
While Hezbollah has exercised political power over the national government, it had established the southern portion of the state as its own territory, with sovereignty in all but name. From there, it initiates a familiar cycle: Hezbollah attacks Israel, displacing civilians in the North; the IDF responds, pushing Hezbollah back and allowing Israelis to move back in to their homes.
A week ago, Israelis were told they could move back home to parts of the North after being displaced over the course of the war since October 7. According to the Times of Israel’s report yesterday, about half of the 60,000 displaced have done so.
One resident, a mother of three from Dovev, said she’s “not afraid and not shaking” upon returning home, because “the army did its job and carried out its work.”
Residents in other towns, even some who have returned, aren’t so sure. One told the Times of Israel: “I believe that in Lebanon, the army fought very hard and did everything it needed to do, but the real question is how to maintain this quiet.”
It shouldn’t have to be said, but: Regardless of the composition of the Iranian regime when this war is over, Israelis have to be able to live in their homes in peace.
In addition, Iran simply cannot be allowed to retain its outposts and its toys. A decisive end to the war would ensure that the conflict cannot flare up again overnight. The shipping lanes have to stay open, Hezbollah has to be dislodged from the territory that makes it a regional problem, etc. What’s broken must be fixed, in other words.
And Lebanon is still, thanks to Hezbollah, broken. As the Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt wrote two weeks ago, despite American help and the Lebanese Armed Forces’ attempts to keep Iran’s proxy in check, “Hezbollah is outpacing the LAF’s efforts to disarm it. Hezbollah has evaded LAF inspections at many sites in the south; it has ratcheted up domestic production of weapons in facilities north of the Litani; and it still manages to smuggle weapons into Lebanon.”
All of which is a reminder that Iran must lose its imperial holdings. There ought to be no consolation prizes for an evil regime that loses a war it has been waging for four decades. And the rest of the Mideast deserves to sleep well at night.
