On Wednesday, March 25, the Conservative Political Action Conference, commonly known as CPAC, kicked off in Grapevine, Texas. President Donald Trump did not attend the event this year, for the first time in a decade. The 2026 conference was noteworthy for a couple of reasons: A bitter GOP Senate primary speaks to the split between the Republican Party establishment and the wider conservative Make America Great Again movement, and a straw poll revealed who’s leading the race for 2028 and whose stock is on the ascent.
Senator John Cornyn of Texas is in a tight spot – though, so too, perhaps, is the primary challenger who has forced a May runoff. The Lone Star State’s current attorney general, Ken Paxton, is favored by the more MAGA-focused voters, while the Republican Party establishment backs the incumbent Cornyn, fearing Paxton may lose the seat to James Talarico, a radical Democrat who defeated outgoing Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in the recent primaries.
CPAC Gambles on Ken Paxton Over Establishment Cornyn
CPAC gives Paxton a higher approval rating than it awarded Cornyn – and its official endorsement. The former also came out on top in a straw poll at the conference. President Trump has thus far remained neutral in the crucial race. Paxton claimed 67% of the votes, with Cornyn taking a 21% slice while 12% remained undecided.
Paxton has some baggage. Still, a Cornyn runoff victory may signal danger in November as conservatives reckon with the prospect of reluctantly voting to re-elect a senator they would rather see gone just to save the seat from a “woke” progressive like Talarico.
Meanwhile, all eyes were on Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who are widely considered the Republican frontrunners to succeed Trump in 2028. That Vance came out on top in the CPAC straw poll of White House hopefuls was probably not surprising – but it wasn’t the whole story, either.
Who Will Carry the MAGA Torch?
The vice president, generally viewed as just the man to carry the MAGA brand forward post-Trump, came out on top with the votes of 53% of CPAC attendees. That’s down from 61% in 2025, but Vance still appears to be the firm favorite.
However, Rubio is gaining ground among the faithful, it would appear. Last year, Vance was trailed in the straw poll by conservative commentator and former Trump advisor Steve Bannon, who took 12% of the vote, while Rubio was practically nowhere to be seen with a meager 3%. This year, the secretary of state, frequently praised by Trump, notched 35% of the votes. No one else is close. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., were tied for third place, each with just 2% support.
One might say Vance, who used to be a fierce Trump critic, represents a possible future in which the GOP is dominated by the MAGA movement Trump practically created. Rubio, on the other hand, could be seen as connecting the party establishment to the Trump wing, in which the prevailing sentiment is more anti-establishment and rejects Washington, DC’s business-as-usual tendencies.
Both Rubio and Vance have dismissed the 2028 talk and any suggestion that they are now or soon will be rivals. One Republican fundraiser recently told The Hill that President Trump is “struggling” with the prospect of ultimately having to choose between his somewhat flamboyant but straight-talking VP and his more business-like but often witheringly sharp secretary of state.
