Early Friday morning local time, Israel launched a large-scale, unilateral attack against Iran. While the full extent of the Israeli assault is still unknown, open-source accounts are reporting airstrikes on residential complexes targeting scientists and the Islamic Republic’s civilian and military leadership; the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime’s praetorians, is dead. Israeli jets also bombarded nuclear and ballistic sites, including the Natanz facility — the heart of Iran’s nuclear program.
This is a defining moment for President Trump and his legacy. He has to decide if he’s prepared to allow Washington to be dragged into yet another unwanted war in the Middle East.
The Israeli operation, codenamed “Rising Lion,” comes fewer than 48 hours before Iranian and US negotiators led by special envoy Steve Witkoff were set to meet for a sixth round of nuclear talks. Moreover, Jerusalem’s action follows repeated statements from Trump, both public and (reportedly) in private conversations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which the President warned against an Israeli intervention that might “blow up” his deal.
Now, with America’s chief regional ally and client deliberately undermining US-led diplomacy and all but coercing Washington into war, American policy in the Middle East is in a fragile state. For Trump, who a decade ago took control of the GOP by opposing America’s “forever wars” in the Middle East, all this must be exasperating.
It’s notable that the Israeli attack comes on the heels of Netanyahu narrowly surviving a vote to dissolve the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. Netanyahu’s efforts to include ultra-Orthodox Israelis in the military draft had alienated the conservative religious wing of his governing coalition, forcing the prime minister to scramble to find a compromise before Thursday morning’s vote. While the agreement is unlikely to solve Netanyahu’s political problems, it did buy him time — and fewer than 24 hours later, he launched an aggressive war on Iran.
The stated purpose behind Israel’s Friday morning attack is to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, with Israel Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin claiming that “we have no choice” and that Iran’s achieving nuclear capabilities is a danger “to the entire world.” But that clearly hasn’t been Washington’s view of the matter, since successive US administrations of both parties have sought to resolve the dispute diplomatically.
Following the International Atomic Energy Agency’s vote to censure Iran for failing to comply with nonproliferation standards, Trump restated his commitment to a diplomatic solution: “Look, it’s very simple, not complicated,” the president said. “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. I want them to be tremendous. We’ll help them be successful. We’ll trade with them. We’ll do whatever is necessary.” Mere hours before the attack, Trump stated: “I want to have an agreement with Iran. We’re fairly close to an agreement.”
Israel’s unilateral and aggressive actions have not only undermined American diplomacy, but have now directly put American lives at risk. There are approximately 40,000 US personnel based in the Persian Gulf region. Iran will retaliate against the Jewish state — that is not in question. The danger is that when the Iranians do retaliate, they will probably, inadvertently or not, hit American troops or other direct US interests, which would trigger a response from Washington.
Secretary of State and acting National Security Adviser Marco Rubio seems savvy to this danger, stating clearly that the United States is “not involved in strikes against Iran, and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” Rubio warned: “Iran should not target US interests or personnel.” Likewise, Trump noted before the attack was launched that the State Department had begun evacuations of its staff from Baghdad, while the US military was evacuating nonessential personnel from bases in the Middle East.
“Trump must remind Israel, once and for all, which is the client state — and which the patron.”
While American leaders seem to understand how this conflict could harm American lives and interests in the region, they haven’t yet commented on how such harm appears to be what Netanyahu is counting on. It is a brazen move of a kind that GOP realists of an earlier age — the likes of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and advisers like James Baker and Brent Scowcroft — would never tolerate. An alliance partner of the United States has launched a unilateral attack on another state, apparently with the aim of scuttling diplomatic negotiations.
Not only has Israel sabotaged US efforts at diplomacy, but these actions are endangering American lives in the hopes that the US will be forced to retaliate against Iran. That is, Netanyahu is hoping that an escalation will drag America into the fray to force America into a regional conflagration just when a bipartisan consensus has emerged in favor of redeployment away from the Middle East toward more strategically pertinent areas like the Pacific.
In response, American leaders need to take control of the situation as quickly as possible, and to do so they must condemn Israel’s aggression, thus putting distance between Washington and what took place on Friday.
Allowing Israel to continue down this path without clear rebuke not only risks another forever war in the Middle East with an unthinkable cost in human life. It will, additionally, turn America into a laughing stock on the international stage. While some internet commentators have hypothesized that the United States covertly supports this attack, that would be an terrible strategic miscalculation: either Netanyahu has made America look the fool and is trying to strong-arm Trump into supporting a war that is against America’s interests, or Trump has supported Netanyahu’s actions for the same reputational cost.
Without condemning Israel’s actions, Trump is sending a clear message: he doesn’t make American policy, Benjamin Netanyahu does.
While the fog of war is as bedeviling as ever, the political options facing the United States are fairly clear: support for Netanyahu, whether actively or passively, will signal that the American government is weak, lacks autonomy, and is servile to the interests of a foreign government, even when that government intentionally endangers American lives and interests.
Alternatively, the United States can say “no more” to Israelis — they created this mess, and the consequences are theirs alone to deal with. This would not only avoid another pointless conflict in the Middle East and spare countless lives, but would also be a tremendous win for Donald Trump.
Joe Biden allowed Netanyahu to derail his presidency by going along with ever bloodier escalation in Gaza. Trump would be wise to avoid the same fate. If he truly wants to be the America First president, then Trump must remind Israel, once and for all, which is the client state — and which the patron.
