The Democratic Party, it seems, is about to enter another Primary Spring. By this, I refer to a rebellious mood that encourages primaries against Democratic incumbents, almost always mounted from the Left. This would be the second such spring since 2017, marking the return of a trend that seemed to diminish in the Biden era. The Democratic base is restless, and once more, progressives are targeting very significant politicians.
Both the Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer, and House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, could end up victims. Or at least, they may have to sweat very hard through their re-election campaigns. Some of this might be because both men are based in New York City, ground zero for Left-wing activism. But the threat is baked into their jobs at a time when Democratic voters, nationally, are taking a dim view of their party overlords.
This great suspicion of the Democratic Party is what distinguishes the first Primary Spring from the second. In 2017, President Trump had just been elected for the first time, and liberal activism was reaching its apogee. This was the #Resistance era, when every conceivable cause — immigration, policing, loathing Russia — was amplified to a stunning degree, and public protest was seemingly inexhaustible. Though anti-Trump marches still take place today, they are nothing like they were in 2017 and 2018, when resistance to Trump was culturally dominant and “woke” politics were just beginning to peak. Put it this way: the Sydney Sweeney American Eagle ad campaign could not have appeared during the first spring.
In addition to being more woke, Democrats liked their party back then. There was genuine excitement for their upstart candidate, and party elders like Schumer and Nancy Pelosi were not yet considered too old, too disconnected. They were cheered as heroes of the anti-Trump war. In 2017, these two ideas — liking the national party leaders enough, while also demanding change — could exist in harmony. Pelosi resented Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for example, and followers of the young upstart could be fiercely critical of the party mainstream. But once the fireworks died down, there was some sense of unity: everyone agreed that beating Trump was critical, and there were plenty of ordinary Democrats who could have warm feelings about both Pelosi and AOC. Unlike now, the Democratic Party itself largely polled well.
The true beginning of the first Primary Spring was AOC’s shock victory over Joe Crowley in a district straddling The Bronx and Queens. Crowley was one of the highest-ranking Democrats in the House, but he wasn’t a well-known national figure. Rather, he was a political boss in Gotham, where he was regarded as a power broker poised to one day ascend to the speakership. Beyond a few local Leftists, no one saw AOC’s triumph coming. Overnight, she was transformed into a national star feted on talk shows, and she embodied a new Millennial generation that was, with great fanfare, asserting itself politically. Moderate Democrats may have been rankled by AOC, but her star power was undeniable.
In the first Primary Spring, progressive challenges to sitting members of Congress and state legislators were prized most. Bernie Sanders’s second presidential campaign, in 2020, was seen as the expected culmination of several years of intense activism. If very few believed Ocasio-Cortez could defeat Crowley, Sanders, following his aggressive challenge to Hillary Clinton in 2016, was far less of a dark horse. Leftists, around the fall and winter of 2019, truly believed that the Vermont socialist could seize the nomination and bring his “old Left” vision to the White House.
Sanders’s obvious defeat in 2020 — the Democratic National Committee or scheming Clintonites couldn’t be blamed this time around — sapped much of the energy out of the first Primary Spring. But there were more progressive victories that came that year, after Sanders conceded to Biden. One of them was Jamaal Bowman, the Squad congressman who unseated a long-serving por-Israel hawk, Eliot Engel, in a Democratic primary as the pandemic raged. On the same day Bowman won his primary, a young socialist organiser from Queens named Zohran Mamdani triumphed, as well, beating a local assemblyman to enter the Albany legilature.
When Biden became president, progressives had more power, but the sizzle was gone, and Democratic incumbents were much better-positioned. AOC’s Squad plateaued. The Democratic Socialists of America began to see a net decrease in membership. And the wind-down of the pandemic meant certain causes that were once dominant, like Black Lives Matter, were going to matter less. Corporations, which enthusiastically backed Black Lives Matter and other progressive causes during the pandemic, would return to business as usual by the time the next presidential election rolled around.
And here we are now, facing a second spring. In one sense, there is nothing surprising about a Trump presidential victory triggering a new Primary Spring. Squint hard enough, and you’ll spot the parallels between 2017 and 2025. Special elections are breaking the Democratic Party’s way, and GOP town halls — if congressional Republicans even bother to hold them — are filling up with constituents alienated by Trump’s Medicaid cuts. What’s different now is the internal sourness: Democrats hate Trump but aren’t feeling much better about their own leaders, Schumer in particular. The remarkably durable leader — he’s been in politics for half a century, and the leader of the Senate Democrats for a decade — seems in danger of losing.
The good news for Schumer is that he has time to recover his standing: he won’t face voters again until 2028. The bad news is that the primary date could fall on the same day as the presidential primary, leading to a turnout boom that sinks him. In the New York City Democratic mayoral primary in June, Mamdani benefited from a turnout surge, especially from 20-something voters who don’t typically participate in local elections. Like Trump, Mamdani performed very well with the casual voter. These kinds of Democrats — anti-establishment, less reverent of party leadership — would not be friendly to Schumer, who will turn 78 in the fall 2028. Mamdani proved, too, that pro-Palestine politics are a winner in a primary, and Schumer’s tireless defence of Israel won’t be viewed fondly.
The challenge for Schumer isn’t just age. Sanders, at 83, is still popular with the youth and revered by the Left. It’s that Schumer’s political strengths no longer play well in the current environment, especially as Democrats hunger for compelling national figures to lead them out of the wilderness. They want another Barack Obama, or at least someone who possesses that sort of verve — a natural storyteller, above anything else.
Democrats lack a narrative. Schumer has always been a small-bore legislator, relishing constituent work and passing somewhat notable but inoffensive bills. He is not a Harry Reid or Lyndon Johnson; he has never had much of a vision for where Democrats or the nation should go. Rather, he’s always been stronger at wrangling votes and cajoling colleagues. Under Biden, this was beneficial, as Democrats passed sweeping infrastructure and green energy legislation with the narrowest of majorities.
Under Trump, however, Schumer has little to offer.
“Democrats lack a narrative.”
Who primaries Schumer remains to be seen, but AOC already looks like a strong contender. She has played more of the inside game since coming to Congress, and she still retains a strong fan base among the young. She’d raise gobs of money. If she doesn’t run for president, a campaign against Schumer seems inevitable. And if, for whatever reason, she decides against it, New York has no shortage of younger legislators and high-profile politicians who could knock out Schumer; Letitia James, the state attorney general known for tussling with Trump, would be formidable.
Less vulnerable, but no longer completely safe, is Jeffries, the House minority leader. Jeffries, like Schumer, is based in Brooklyn. He’s much younger, still in his 50s, and he’s a stronger public speaker. He has deep roots in the black community, which has traditionally been important for primaries. Unlike Crowley, he won’t be a sleepy campaigner. His district also has enough moderate and conservative chunks to save him from a Left-wing challenger.
But Jeffries must look over his shoulder now because Mamdani was a serious contender in his district. In the northern sections, younger, Left-leaning voters are eager for change. It doesn’t matter to them that Jeffries, in 2027, appears likely to become speaker of the House, with Democrats favoured to flip the chamber. They aren’t moved by the power that’s potentially in reach.
Jeffries will, at the minimum, be motivated to offer a message for the Democrats that transcends reviling Trump. Eight years ago, Trump hate went a long way. Now, voters are demanding more. They are, if anything else, less naïve than they once were. If Schumer is challenged in 2028 — or if the rumblings of internal dissent get louder — Senate Democrats will have to rethink how they organise themselves, especially as they struggle to get out of the minority. Is Schumer really the man to lead them back? Or do they hunt for another leader, someone with a sharper vision and more of a fighting spirit? These questions, for the Democrats, will only become more urgent as the Trump era drags on.
