Azerbaijan and Armenia Escape Tunnel of Endless War

Trumpian diplomacy promises a win-win-win.

It seems these days successful peace negotiations are a rarity. Conflicts are most often characterized by two sides dug in and unwilling to stop fighting. So, it is gratifying when two countries at war with each other for 37 years agree to seek a peaceful solution. However, that’s just what happened when President Donald Trump brought the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to the White House.

Azerbaijan and Armenia Sign a Trump-Brokered Deal

While conflicts raged in Gaza and Ukraine, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a historic peace agreement at the White House on Aug. 8, 2025. The deal brokered by President Donald Trump signals a remarkable turnaround for the South Caucasus region that has seen nearly four decades of deadly conflict and the displacement of tens of thousands of people. As President Aliyev remarked during the trilateral meeting, according to a Daily Signal X posting:

“For over 30 years, numerous presidents have tried and failed to achieve peace between the Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Within less than a year, President Donald Trump has brought about a ‘miracle,’ says Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a trilateral signing between the United States, Armenia and Azerbaijan: ‘I don’t want to go into the history of some very strange decisions of a [Nobel] peace committee to award the prize [to] someone who didn’t do anything at all. But President Trump in six months did [a] miracle.’”

Many have unsuccessfully tried to broker an end to the fighting. As Radio Free Europe observed, “Despite years of international mediation, mainly by Russia, the United States, and France — under the so-called Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — the two sides remained openly hostile.” During a short lull in the open fighting, there appeared to be some hope of a longer pause in hostilities. However, “In 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and seized full authority over Nagorno-Karabakh.”

The genesis of the Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict is rooted in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, dating back to the Soviet Union. The problem was that the mountainous territory was recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, while the population is primarily ethnic Armenians. As long as Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of the Soviet Union, open conflict was held to a minimum. The area became subject to brutal warfare as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics began dissolving, and former Soviet satellite countries became independent. Tensions escalated rapidly, and intense fighting commenced between 1988 and 1994. “As the Soviet Union crumbled in the late 1980s, Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region demanded to be transferred to Armenian control. This led to a full-blown war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, which left around 30,000 people dead and more than a million displaced,” India Today reported.

In 1994, Russia was able to broker a tenuous ceasefire, with Nagorno-Karabakh and neighboring districts put in Armenian control. Yet randomly occurring outbreaks of violence stalled diplomatic efforts. This unstable situation continued until 2020, when an intense war broke out and Azerbaijan reclaimed lost territories, including Nagorno-Karabakh. During the intervening years, numerous efforts at mediation failed, and mistrust festered between the two countries. Consequently, the new agreement has even more significance.

Economics Play an Essential Role in Deal

As with most Trump diplomacy, there is a country-to-country-to-US economic dimension to the agreement. As a White House press release explained, “The two leaders also signed bilateral economic agreements with the US, unlocking the great potential of the South Caucasus region in trade, transit, energy, infrastructure, and technology, and creating new opportunities for the American people and American businesses.” This is pure Trumpian win-win-win. A deal that creates prosperity for Azerbaijan and Armenia makes it difficult for the countries to say no. The agreement provides for exclusive US rights to a new trade route through the South Caucasus named, of course, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

Among the benefits of the new route for international commerce is providing landlocked Armenia a gateway to global markets and the opportunity for Azerbaijan to diversify its trade routes. Commerce will be boosted for both countries, bringing foreign investment and creating jobs. As the White House press message observed, “President Trump is proving that nations across the globe can move beyond longstanding conflicts of the past toward a shared future of peace, prosperity, and success.”

Even though there are hurdles to overcome, the willingness demonstrated by both sides to compromise allows cautious optimism that peace may be at hand. As the world watches, the citizens of Azerbaijan and Armenia can anticipate a cooperative, prosperous future rather than persistent conflict.

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.