California Governor Gavin Newsom announced his plan to gerrymander-block Texas by, well, gerrymandering in the opposite direction. Texan Greg Abbott believes his state’s new maps – should they clear the legislature – would flip five currently Democratic US House seats to the Republicans. Newsom claims to have some clever new maps that flip five of California’s GOP seats blue. What a brilliant riposte. But will it work? And what happens when other states join the battle?
Gavin Newsom, Man of the People?
At an event on Thursday, August 14, Newsom announced his intention to counter the gerrymandering of Texas Republicans with a bit of his own. And make no mistake – it’s gerrymandering on both sides. As Liberty Nation News’ Graham J. Noble pointed out when the Texas Democrats fled their own state’s efforts: “Redistricting and gerrymandering are not the same. As states’ populations change – or shift within the state – congressional districts are redrawn so that each has the same (as close as possible) number of residents, or constituents.”
“Gerrymandering,” on the other hand, “is when districts are redrawn specifically to create a majority-Democrat or majority-Republican district. They often appear on the map as if there is no logic to how they have been defined.” And that’s precisely what’s being done in both states – it’s just that both sides argue they have to do it to balance out the bad deeds of the other.
In his Thursday announcement, Newsom hyped up the new maps and promised a reveal for the people soon, followed by a popular vote. Let the people decide whether and how to do it, he says. What a man of the people – though, of course, he has no choice but to let Californians decide by popular vote. In the Golden State, redistricting is handled by an independent commission that relies on popular vote to act. The state legislature, which reconvenes on August 18, has until August 22 to get it on the ballot for voters to consider in a November special election.
“Today is Liberation Day for the state of California,” Newsom proclaimed in what one might understandably “mistake” for a campaign speech. “I know they say don’t mess with Texas, well don’t mess with the great Golden State.”
The soon-to-be-term-limited governor with presidential aspirations had another opportunity to ham it up in front of the crowd as well, though. US Border Patrol showed up in force at the rally and arrested at least one man. “We’re here making Los Angeles a safer place,” Border Patrol Chief Gregory Bovino told Fox 11. “Since we won’t have politicians who will do that, we do that ourselves. So, that’s why we’re here today. As you can see, already making it a safer place.”
Newsom put it on Trump, of course. “He knows his presidency ends in 17 months,” the governor said. “He’s a failed president.” He went on to call the presence of ICE Trump’s “weakness masquerading as strength.”
Golden State Gerrymandering
But back to Newsom’s new plan. Can he pull it off? Democrats already control both of California’s US Senate seats and 43 out of 52 House seats. They also enjoy supermajorities in the state’s legislature, outnumbering Republicans 60-19 and 30-10 in the California State Assembly and Senate, respectively. At the same time, however, a look at the 2024 presidential election map, separated out by the 58 individual counties of California, paints a different picture. Though Kamala Harris beat Trump in the popular vote 58.5% to 38.3%, she won only 25 counties to his 33. Given that disparity, it’s hard to see how there’s much more gerrymandering that can be done for the Democrats.
Nevertheless, the Golden State governor certainly thinks he has a golden idea. Californians do still have nine Republicans representing them in the US House, and Newsom’s plan would, if he gets his way, threaten most of them.
According to a chart allegedly leaked to Politico by California lawmakers, the plan as it stands would target the following nine districts:
- CD-1 would go from “safe Republican” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-3: would go from “safe Republican” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-9: would go from “lean Republican” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-13: would go from “lean Republican” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-27: would go from “lean Democratic” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-41: would go from “safe Republican” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-45: would go from “lean Democratic” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-47: would go from “lean Democratic” to “safe Democratic”
- CD-48: would go from “safe Republican” to “lean Democratic”
Of these, currently four are held by the GOP. Additionally, the new maps would likely see more Democrats counted in Republican Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley district – already a Democrat-majority district.
A Texas-Sized Tiff
Newsom’s plan isn’t the only one, of course – he’s marketing it as a retaliatory redistricting aimed at offsetting the GOP’s efforts in the Lone Star State. Republicans hope their new maps will take five of Texas’ seats in the US House from Democrats. These maps – themselves pitched as a necessity to “balance” all the gerrymandering Democrats do in blue states – were designed to flip five Democratic seats to the GOP.
And so the tit-for-tat between Democrats and Republicans continues.
Texas Democrats famously fled the state in an attempt to deny quorum and stop the vote on the new maps, but the move was at least a partial failure. The House didn’t have enough people to hold a vote this special session, but the Senate did – and the GOP majority approved the maps. Governor Greg Abbott plans to call another special session to allow the House Republican majority to do the same.
As Mr. Noble explained in his coverage for LNN, gerrymandering isn’t anything new to either party. Still, “the hypocrisy of Democrats trying to prevent redistricting in Texas by calling it gerrymandering, despite having done it themselves in several blue states, is not lost on anyone.” Indeed, the fight has spread to a grand total (so far) of eight states – and though it’s far from certain who will come out on top, things don’t look good for the Democrats.
Missouri lawmakers have indicated they may redraw the district of Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver so that it ends up with a majority of Republican voters instead, and the GOP is eying Ohio as another place to pick up a seat or two. The Ohio Constitution requires 60% of the state’s legislature to agree on the maps, but if they fail to pass something bipartisan by the deadline, the heavily Republican Ohio Redistricting Commission will do it for them.
Republican Governors Mike Braun of Indiana and Ron DeSantis of Florida have also indicated they’re open to joining the fray. So, what other blue states plan to get involved? Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is considering redistricting as well, and so is Kathy Hochul of New York. The big players, however, are determined by population, as that’s what determines congressional seats – so it’s a battle between California and Texas, with Florida perhaps skewing it heavily to the right. New York can’t be counted – not for 2026, anyway – because changing its maps right now would require a change to the state constitution, and that takes time. So, if everyone currently standing on the sidelines jumps in, it’s likely to go poorly for Democrats – assuming it doesn’t anyway, as gerrymandering plans are notoriously not guaranteed to succeed.
