As the war rages on, there is a constant need for fresh fighters.
Holding the line against the Russians is getting harder for Ukraine as fewer fresh fighters rush to volunteer. Russia is increasing its pressure on the battlefield and gaining territory, albeit slowly, and replenishing the ranks of defenders has come down to conscription.
Fighting for Ukraine Has Lost Its Appeal
Recently, Ukrainian citizens have taken to the streets to protest President Volodymyr Zelensky’s backtracking on fighting corruption in his government. Those demonstrations were a foreshadowing of the willingness of the Ukrainian people to take on the Zelensky administration to express their displeasure with his policies. Now, the focus of the people is on what they see as unfair and draconian conscription tactics to gather fighters to face the Russian war machine. For the Ukrainian government, cajoling volunteers and conscription face some stark realities. As the Washington Times explained, “Kyiv’s recruitment woes are compounded by a dire demographic situation, with 6.5 million Ukrainians having fled the country and about 3 million now living under Russian occupation. Ukraine’s population has shrunk from a prewar total of 41 million to about 28 million to 30 million.”
The problems facing Ukraine today can be attributed to the Biden administration’s “as long as it takes” support strategy. The dribbling out of military support ensured a protracted conflict with no end in sight. After over 1,267 days of constant fighting, the crisis for Ukraine, falling short on volunteers and the resistance to conscription efforts, shows a people under severe strain. Many Ukrainians are no longer eager to fight or able to make the final sacrifice. “Now people are no longer afraid to tell their opinion in a protest nor to stand up to draft officers, who many accuse of lawlessly beating and kidnapping people from the streets,” The European Conservative explained.
The recent protests and extensive draft avoidance have become more than a problem just for President Zelensky. They are a harbinger of more trouble ahead for the US and Western nations that have sunk billions of dollars and their credibility on the belief that Ukraine can sustain the prolonged war. A report in Real Clear Defense by Jakub Jajcay, who spent a year fighting as a rifleman with the Ukrainian infantry, revealed: “The tactical skills of the vast majority of Ukrainian forces… are poor, in part because so many are conscripts with little desire or preparation for war.” Though Jajcay’s observations were of situations early in the war, the failure to provide sufficient replacement soldiers today brings about many of the same results.
Ukraine’s declining troop strength is not something the US can easily solve. American troops are not going to fight in Ukraine. However, America can help the beleaguered nation more efficiently. US trainers could provide more effective training for new conscripts (outside Ukraine, in Poland or Romania), leading to reduced casualties and making each volunteer or conscript a more valuable soldier. Helping Ukraine develop its Noncommissioned Officer corps to provide better leadership at the squad level, critical at the front lines. Addressing the morale of soldiers employing US support for veterans by providing medical, psychological, and logistical support for wounded Ukrainian soldiers. Such support would help get experienced fighters back to the front or into training roles. For the moment, the US must persuade the Kyiv government to crack down on abusive conscription methods. They are self-defeating.
Domestic Disturbance Does Not Help Kyiv’s Cause
As Presidents Trump, Putin, and Zelensky enter talks on bringing about a ceasefire, Ukraine cannot appear weak and faltering from within. Seeing Ukrainian citizens at odds with their government plays right into the narrative Putin likes to push – that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader. Domestic unrest makes it difficult for Kyiv to advocate a hard line. Leaders who know their citizens are not fully in support of them are inclined to default to less-than-ideal ceasefire terms if it will result in an end to the killing and failing public support.
Ukraine’s troop shortage is a crisis and a direct threat to the country’s success against the Russian invaders. The protests and the draft evaders reveal a society that has come to the end of its rope. Until Kyiv can find a way to ease the war’s impact on ordinary people, the opportunity for a just and lasting peace grows dimmer with each passing day. The war is rapidly becoming not just a test of military might, but a test of steadfast focus on beating back the enemy.
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