Texas Democrats just ended a two-week standoff on Monday, August 18, returning home after fleeing their state to stall a GOP redistricting effort that galvanized Gov. Gavin Newsom into demanding that new maps be drawn in California. Both states could end up canceling each other out, though, which is partly why various other governors, red and blue alike, are already sharpening their pencils, ready to redraw – ahem, gerrymander – their maps in a battle for the House in the 2026 midterms. Democrats, however, are instigating a war without ammunition.
Democrats Backed Themselves Into a Corner
This started at the behest of the Donald Trump administration, which urged Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) to fix four racially gerrymandered districts in violation of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment. Democrats turned on the outrage machine. “We are at war,” said Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), speaking alongside a few visiting Texas representatives at a press conference in July.
“This is an attempt to grab power, to change the rules, to determine a certain outcome,” Gov. Maura Healey (D-MA) told reporters at the beginning of August. “It is antithetical to American democracy and is antithetical to the functioning of American government.”
“If we don’t put a stake into the heart of this administration, there may not be an election in 2028,” Newsom told reporters in July following a meeting with friendly Texas lawmakers. “They’re not screwing around. We can’t afford to screw around either. We have got to fight fire with fire.”
But Democrats have little wiggle room in the states they control because they have already carved out Republicans about as much as they can without disenfranchising GOP voters. For instance, in 2021, Illinois took 14 of the state’s 17 congressional seats, “claiming 82 percent of the seats despite winning just 52.7 percent of the two-party vote,” explained The Boston Globe. “Maryland Democrats crafted a map that yields them seven of eight seats, and the party awarded itself bonuses in Oregon and New Mexico and maximized its advantage in Nevada.”
It’s highly unlikely that Maryland courts will allow Democrats to enact an 8-0 map. Illinois probably doesn’t have enough Democratic voters remaining to grab another seat. In New Jersey, where a bipartisan commission draws congressional lines, Democrats already control nine of 12 seats. New York would have to amend its state constitution in order to draw maps mid-decade, but that probably wouldn’t pass until after midterms.
Democrats’ best option to counter Texas is in California, where Newsom has become the face of the party’s retaliation efforts. He riled up Golden Staters in a recent rally, hoping they’ll vote to pass new maps in November in a special election. However, support for the governor’s endeavor, as Liberty Nation News’ James Fite pointed out, appears weak, and there are many ways the effort could fail. Republicans, on the other hand, have options.
Not Looking Good for the Left
As it stands, Republicans hold a 219-212 majority in the House, with four seats vacant. Texas hopes to add five seats with its proposed maps, giving the Republicans 30 of the state’s 38 congressional districts. Newsom is aiming to gain up to five seats in California, which would basically put both sides right back where they started, except the GOP has other states in mind.
Ohio is set to redraw its maps this fall, and Republicans will likely have their eyes on two competitive seats held by Democrats there. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is “very seriously” considering a redraw that could threaten Democratic seats in South Florida, Orlando, and Tampa. Indiana could follow, but Republican Gov. Mike Braun has yet to decide whether to hold a special election to do so.
Even if Newsom’s maps go into effect, the independent commission he’s trying to sidestep with a special election will return in 2031, the same year the whole nation will reapportion House districts. California is expected to lose four seats due to its dwindling population. Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin will probably forfeit a seat, and New York might shed two. Guess where all those seats – and Electoral College votes – will go? The states people moved to, such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, which will be a boon for the GOP.
The Texas fight seems to give the impression Democrats are standing up for Americans when the reality is that they’re only scrambling for power while avoiding the real work: building a platform with policies to help Americans improve their lives. Redistricting won’t keep people from fleeing blue states or make their cities more appealing. Maps can’t replace ideas. If the Democratic Party wants to win back the House in 2026, it will probably need more than a soapbox and outrage.
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