On the Eve of Election

With just one to go before a small slice of the American electorate casts ballots, what do the latest polls say? And what news – if any – is likely to change what seems like a tranche of inevitable outcomes?

The Big Apple’s Big Election

Voters in New York City are preparing for what looks to be a seismic change in local governance with Democratic Party candidate Zohran Mamdani going into the final stretch a whopping 16.6% ahead of now-independent candidate Andrew Cuomo (44.5% versus 27.9%). As Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling tool shows, the averages have not really changed since the race began.

Notably, on CBS this Sunday, President Donald Trump weighed in on the electoral battle, saying, “It’s gonna be hard for me as the president to give a lot of money to New York. Because if you have a communist running New York, all you’re doing is wasting the money you’re sending there.” He continued:

“So, I don’t know that he’s won, and I’m not a fan of Cuomo one way or the other, but if it’s gonna be between a bad Democrat and a communist, I’m gonna pick the bad Democrat all the time, to be honest with you.”

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa has maintained an average polling of around 16% throughout the contest, but that could change as conservative New Yorkers rally to Cuomo in an effort to keep Mamdani from Gracie Mansion. Even if all of Sliwa’s base jumped ship, it still might not be enough to impact the long-predicted outcome.

Virginia Gubernatorial Upset Unlikely

Democratic Party candidate Abigail Spanberger is enjoying an average lead of 8.3% against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. It’s a comfortable position to be in with just one day to go before the election, but every little helps, and Spanberger gladly received the support of former President Barack Obama on Sunday, November 2. The 44th commander-in-chief rallied in both Virginia and New Jersey, speaking more of Donald Trump’s return to the White House than what either candidate he was supporting had to offer. He said of Trump:

“All of us are being tested right now… Trump and the Republicans, they want you to think it’s part of their story, that things only happen from the top down; that a few people in power make decisions and the rest of us have to live with the consequences. But real change has always come from the bottom up; from ordinary folks who look around and say, we can do better and then join together to make change happen.”

It’s boilerplate stuff, even from a man who is well-known for using a lot of words without actually saying much at all. And perhaps it speaks more to Spanberger’s record of refusing to commit to any position whatsoever that platitudes are the best he can offer.

And on to New Jersey

Again, Obama did not go deep into details regarding the gubernatorial candidate for The Garden State, instead opting to deliver a speech that could be cut and pasted to any Democratic Party contender. He denounced the first nine months of Trump’s second term, saying:

“We don’t need to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. We don’t need to wonder about whether vulnerable people are going to be hurt or ask ourselves how much more coarse and mean our culture can become. We’ve witnessed it. Elections do matter… We all have more power than we think. We just have to use it.”

Republican hopeful Jack Ciattarelli is currently an average of 5.2% behind Democrat Mikie Sherrill. There have, however, been a handful of polls that put him within the margin of error of taking the win. A trio of surveys from Atlas Intel, co/efficient, and the Trafalgar Group each have Ciattarelli just one point behind, but he has not held a lead since a mid-September National Research Inc. poll that gave him a one-point advantage.

Early data suggests that as of last week, the Democratic Party candidate had a more than 200,000 raw vote edge in mail-in ballots, and a roughly 2% early in-person voting advantage. The only way Sherrill loses is if on-the-day voting swings heavily Republican.

One to Watch

A race that had barely made the public radar took on a life of its own as texts from Democrat candidate for attorney general in Virginia, Jay Jones, became public. Jones was sitting comfortably ahead of incumbent AG Jason Miyares until the explosive release. Apparently, wishing death upon the children of a rival politician can still make a difference in tribal loyalties… but not too much.

Up until early October, Jones led every poll; as the text messages gained traction, Miyares began the steady creep in poll position. Overall, the Democrat contender maintains a 0.2% lead, but when we limit to just polls that took place in the last two weeks, things look very different.

In fact, with this parameter set, Miyares has a 2.2% advantage; that’s still within the margin of error, but makes this race well worth watching.

Anything Goes

While the outcomes of each race seem almost certain for now – especially with a huge chunk of early votes already cast – everything depends on November 4 and who turns up to the polling stations. Liberty Nation News will be tracking everything that happens and keep you informed of the latest news and any fresh data.