As it turns out, the 15th time is the charm. The Senate voted to end the filibuster on the House-passed funding bill to reopen the government – on the 40th day of the record-breaking shutdown – November 9. But the battle isn’t over quite yet. There’s still one more vote – which could be delayed several days – and then it must return to the House for approval of the deal struck between Republicans and Democrats in the upper chamber. So it isn’t over yet, but it may be soon.
Let’s Make a Deal
What made the 15th attempt succeed where the other 14 failed was the offer by Republicans to hold a vote on enhanced Affordable Care subsidies later once the government reopens. The initial stance of the Democrats was that the government stayed unfunded until the ACA subsidies were added to the continuing resolution. Even when Republicans initially offered a vote in the future, most Democrats stood firm. But after 40 days of shutdown, eight relatively centrist senators were persuaded to cross the aisle.
Senators Dick Durbin of Illinois and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire are retiring after their terms end this year. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto, and New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan aren’t up for re-election until 2028, and Tim Kaine of Virginia, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen, and Angus King, the independent from Maine, aren’t up for re-election until 2030. The eight of them crossed the aisle to help the GOP pull off a 60-40 vote to end the filibuster. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky was the only Republican to oppose.
The deal struck between the parties includes a vote in December on the proposal to extend ACA tax credits for another year as well as to end the federal layoffs that President Trump initiated during the shutdown. Of course, the final particulars aren’t written in stone, so to speak, until the votes are cast. Until then, it’s a constant negotiation, and things could change.
The Shutdown Countdown
Now that the cloture vote has succeeded, the Senate just needs to muster 51 votes – or a 50-50 tie with Vice President JD Vance breaking it – to pass the amended continuing resolution. But when that will happen remains uncertain. Republicans will certainly try on Monday, November 10, but it only takes one of the 40 opposed senators to delay the final vote by as long as several days. Then the House must approve the final product. Members of the House, which has been out of session since September 19, were told they should expect a vote this week and that they’ll be given notice 36 hours in advance.
So, let’s break down the timeline. At the soonest, the Senate could pass the stopgap spending bill Monday, then send the House a day-and-a-half notice. Depending on the time, the House might vote Wednesday or Thursday, and the president could sign right away, officially reopening the closed portions of the government Friday morning, November 14. More likely, at least some Senate Democrats will drag their feet, and the shutdown will stretch into next week. Then, of course, the House GOP could refuse to accept the Senate’s deal. That would mean it’s back to the drawing board with no end in sight – but it would also mean that the blame for the shutdown would credibly shift from Senate Democrats to House Republicans, and, therefore, isn’t terribly likely.
The Future of Health Care
Aside from achieving a new national record for longest shutdown ever, this funding fight may also have initiated a change in the future of tax-funded health care in America. Assuming the House approves the Senate deal, Democrats will get their vote on extending the COVID-era ACA subsidies for another year in December. But with Republican majorities in both chambers, the votes will almost certainly fail – especially now that there’s another potential option.
And that’s the really interesting part: Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-LA) proposal to replace Obamacare subsidies with pre-funded medical savings accounts. The Louisiana lawmaker clarified on Sunday ahead of the continuing resolution vote that his plan doesn’t touch the original ACA subsidies passed in 2010 – just the COVID-era enhancements passed during the Biden administration. Rather than sending that tax money to insurance companies, as is the norm now, that same funding would be used to create the health savings accounts that people on the individual exchange could qualify for just as they qualify for the subsidized insurance premiums.
This may seem at first flush like an off-the-wall suggestion from out of left (or, in this case, presumably right) field, but the GOP at large and President Trump himself have taken it and run with it. Sen. Cassidy first suggested his idea on Friday, and by Saturday, most Republicans who spoke during the debate period championed the initiative. President Trump posted to Truth Social:
“I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE, and have money left over.”
The conservative Paragon Health Institute joined in, suggesting that low-income Americans be allowed to choose to put part of their ACA subsidy money into health savings accounts instead.
Once the shutdown ends, the regular funding battle begins anew, as lawmakers must still agree on 12 necessary full-year spending bills before the continuing resolution runs out – or, failing that, at least another CR – to keep the government running. But for those already looking to the horizon, these other interesting health care developments likely foreshadow what’s to come.
