Berlin Meeting on Ukraine Shows Modest Progress

No NATO membership in Ukraine’s future, but other security guarantees are in the works.

It’s discouraging that the Dec. 15 Ukraine peace talks in Berlin were described as “progress.” Only modest agreement among European Union (EU) members, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner was achieved on security guarantees.

As Liberty Nation News has reported, “The sticking points in achieving a deal remain the same. Russia wants to continue fighting to gain more territory and improve its negotiating position. Ukraine does not want to trade sovereign territory it still occupies for peace.”

While this has been a rather one-sided affair, at least Ukraine has refined its demands should any substantive talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin manifest in the future. An EU press release described consensus among the participants on “NATO-like” or “Article 5-like” security guarantees that would prompt an armed response from NATO and EU countries if Ukraine were attacked again.

Ukraine Nods to Security Measures

According to the statement, four broad areas of agreement are:

• Establishing a European-led multinational force of willing nations to assist in regenerating Ukraine’s military to secure the seas and skies, and operate inside Ukraine with US support but no US troops on the ground;
• Providing a US-led group to monitor and verify the ceasefire to achieve early warning and reduce the threat of a larger conflict;
• Establishing a legally binding commitment, “subject to national procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack”; and
• Providing “sustained and significant support to Ukraine to build its armed forces, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000 to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory.”

As a sweetener, participants strongly support the accession of Ukraine into the European Union. This would help rebuild the embattled country’s economic capability and portend greater financial independence in the future.

Unfortunately, Russia has vehemently rejected any substantial security protections for Ukraine. As the Institute for the Study of War observed, “The Kremlin has consistently indicated that it will reject any peace deals that offer reliable security guarantees for Ukraine and is highly unlikely to accept a settlement that contains any provisions safeguarding Ukrainian territorial integrity.” But that’s just the point. Ukraine won’t accept an agreement that has Russia ever poised on its border to finish what it started on Feb. 24, 2022. Putin aims to extend Russia’s territorial borders to include all of Ukraine, which he made clear in his July 12, 2021, manifesto. The Moscow strongman believes that if he continues the fighting, Ukraine and its allies will grow tired of the killing and accede to Russia’s demands. Moscow sees the eastward expansion of NATO and arms supplies to Ukraine as a danger to the Motherland’s security. “Putin has for years complained about NATO’s eastward expansion as a security threat and sees any possibility of Ukraine joining the alliance as a major red line,” the BBC observed.

The Kremlin has demanded that Ukraine never become part of NATO, a point Zelensky and his allies have conceded. Putin wants to replace the current Ukrainian government with a Russian puppet administration and to fully annex Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas), Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea. Russian control of the Donbas makes Ukraine vulnerable to a future invasion.

Nor does Putin seem the slightest bit interested in stopping the slaughter of his soldiers on the battlefield. His disinterest, almost nonchalance, was evident during a media interview earlier this month with US representatives. “Witkoff and Kushner last met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Dec. 2 for about five hours. Putin complained in an interview with India Today that the meeting was too long and that he grew ‘weary.’ He ultimately rejected parts of the 20-point proposal,” The Hill reported.

In the Face of Russian Rejection, Allies Soldier On

Despite what appears to be a doomed peace proposal, the United States, Ukraine, and the EU continue to negotiate among themselves. A follow-up discussion is scheduled for Dec. 20-21 in Miami to cover thorny territorial issues. Reuters explained, “The official said a working group came up with a three-page draft on territory issues and Zelenskiy is expected to discuss it with his team, and the US side will eventually discuss the topic with the Russians.”

So far, no reports suggest the Russians are considering conceding to any Ukrainian positions. Putin has not offered to move talks closer to a ceasefire and permanent settlement. Only one side of this conflict wants peace. Spoiler alert: It’s not Russia.

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