The New York Times reports that the Israeli government, as well as several Arab states, asked President Trump to postpone a strike on Iran. There are three possible reasons for this.
First: They didn’t; it’s all a ruse. Trump likes to set “final chance” deadlines after he’s already made his decision to strike. The administration has not hesitated in the past to maximize the element of surprise and could be doing the same here.
Second: We take the reporting at face value. In this telling, the Iranians would be tempted to retaliate against Israel for an American strike. “Iran fired many ballistic missiles at Israel during a 12-day war between the two nations in June that the United States also took part in by striking three Iranian nuclear sites. Some of the Iranian missiles got past Israeli air defenses and killed civilians,” the Times reminds readers.
Trump doesn’t like to outsource America’s foreign-policy decision-making, but he also doesn’t want to be blamed for an intervention that goes awry. Perhaps the Israelis convinced him a strike wasn’t yet necessary, or perhaps he decided that the party that will be put in the line of fire—in this case Israel—has the standing to make such a request.
Third: Israel did in fact ask Trump to hold off, just as the Times reports—but for a different reason. Rather than fearing an Iranian retaliation, Israel prefers the prevailing situation in the Middle East at the moment: All of its main enemies are on the back foot. Hamas is weak and cornered in Gaza; Hezbollah has been brought low, and Trump has reportedly given Israel the green light to flatten it for good if the terror group so much as sneezes in the wrong direction. The situation in Syria is fluid, but Israel has control of a buffer zone and allies on the ground, so that border remains quiet even if the conflict could flare up again. Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority has come out in support of the next step in the U.S.-led plan for Gaza.
In fact, if we follow this line of thought, we find that Israel is in the midst of a rare push to expand its diplomatic clout. Israel and Syria agreed last week on a framework for intelligence sharing and communication with an eye toward economic cooperation, continuing a shift in relations between the two states since the fall of the house of Assad.
Then there’s Lebanon: Yesterday, the Lebanese foreign minister made a remarkable statement to Sky News: “so long as Hezbollah is not completely disarmed, Israel has the right to continue its attacks” on the terrorist organization.
Looking further around the region, before the new year Greece, announced it would increase joint air and naval exercises with Israel and Cyprus this year. The three countries have also moved to increase economic cooperation. Both moves are aimed at curbing Turkey’s imperial aspirations in the Middle East.
Also before the new year, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland’s independence, changing overnight the Somali breakaway’s stature as other nations court the strategically located democracy. “Israel is in a region where many of its neighbors are enemies,” Somaliland’s foreign minister told the Associated Press. “And Somaliland is in an area where many of their neighbors are hostile to them.” The two situations, he said, were “very, very similar.”
An alliance between the two not only helps Somaliland’s security but also Israel’s: As another AP story reported: “Somaliland sits along one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors. It has drawn interest from foreign investors and military powers who see it as a potential alternative to neighboring Djibouti, which is home to the premier African bases for the American and Chinese militaries, and those of several other nations.” According to one report, Israel is even in talks with the Afar tribe, which is spread across Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti and has been courted Iran as well.
All of which is to say, Israel might not be seeking disruption at the moment, and with good reason. At the same time, nobody actually knows what Trump is going to do, possibly including Trump. Which means disruption might be fueling up anyway.
