Democrats are currently in the throes of a full-blown political wilderness moment following their November 2024 throttling at the hands of Donald Trump. And the elected officials it may hurt most are boilerplate Republican establishment incumbents in Congress who for years were able to skate by on “you need me to stay in office to secure the [choose one, House or Senate].” Among those most endangered in 2026 is Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA).
Six words may spell disaster for Cassidy as primary opponents line up to challenge him: “I voted to convict President Trump.” He uttered that phrase in February 2021 when Democrats attempted to impeach Trump for a second time over the events of Jan. 6. He was acquitted in the upper chamber despite Cassidy’s vote.
His full quote, which Cassidy proudly touted in a press release following the Senate trial, is even more problematic in the starkly changed political climate of today. “Our Constitution and our country is (sic) more important than any one person. I voted to convict President Trump because he is guilty,” Cassidy said. His official news release made sure to spell out what the senator deemed Trump guilty of: “incitement of insurrection.”
This is the man seeking re-election as a Republican for another six-year term in the Senate amid the glowing sunshine of Trump’s political renaissance. But there’s even more lethal ammunition his GOP rivals will be able to rely on as they target Cassidy, who first won his seat in 2014.
A Comprehensive Cassidy Problem
Three more words will likely be every bit as damaging for Cassidy in a Republican primary held in a solidly red state: “comprehensive immigration reform.” As with his embrace of Trump “insurrection” rhetoric, once again Cassidy can be found here fully embracing Democrat verbiage on a hot-button topic of special significance to the American people.
During the summer of 2023, Cassidy worked with progressive Democrat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) on the latest version of the buzzword proposal establishment politicians on both sides of the aisle seeking to legalize the status of tens of millions of illegal aliens in this country have promoted for 20-odd years.
For Trump-supporting MAGA Republicans, just hearing “comprehensive” leads them to smell a boondoggle in the works. It’s the language of John McCain and Ted Kennedy when they first sculpted their ill-fated immigration reform legislation in 2005, and it’s been repeatedly dusted off and presented to Americans by one establishment congressman or senator after another ever since.
For Swamp politicians, comprehensive is meant to signal “yes, we are going to secure the border, too.” But the Trump loyalists who now dominate the GOP voting base in Louisiana and throughout America only hear “guest workers,” “amnesty,” and abject weakness.
“We need comprehensive immigration reform. One of the bipartisan ideas was that of Bill Cassidy, and he wants to work with me to rightsize immigration,” Gillibrand told New York City NPR affiliate WNYC radio in September 2023.
Republican primary voters fully understand what Gillibrand’s idea of rightsized immigration is. Cassidy signing on for it will prove another millstone for him in a primary battle.
Lisa, Susan, and Me
On June 17, Louisiana GOP state Sen. Blake Miguez officially announced he is running against Cassidy. He wasted no time trotting out the impeachment vote quote, making it a centerpiece of the video launching his campaign. Miguez is attempting to position himself as “the MAGA choice” for Republican voters in the Bayou State, so expect an all-out blitz on immigration as Trump’s massive deportation operation rolls on with the stout support of a majority of US citizens.
Cassidy’s response to Miguez’ opening volley shows he fully understands how vulnerable he is. “I supported the president 90% of the time in his first term, which is among the top of all Republican senators,” Cassidy asserted, The New Orleans Times-Picayune reported. “He’s got two cabinet secretaries that he would not have unless I hadn’t gotten them approved.”
Miguez will not be the only aspirant going after the fragile Cassidy incumbency.
Louisiana State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming, a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, announced his primary challenge to Cassidy in December. He immediately attached the dreaded RINO label on Cassidy.
“Sen. Cassidy gets all the benefits of being a Republican in a Republican state, but yet is doing things that enable Democrats to have their way,” Fleming told Punchbowl News in March.
There is an ominous number to go with those damning words that will undoubtedly haunt Cassidy as well: three. That is all that is left of the seven Senate Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for “insurrection incitement” in 2021.
Gone are the likes of soggy pre-2016 GOP relics Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, and Pat Toomey. The two other remaining survivors are maverick female Republicans in states far less securely red than Louisiana: Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME).
You cannot get away with being a Murkowski or Collins in Louisiana Republican political circles today, and, obviously, you cannot be a Gillibrand immigration ally. But the last thing you can be is a guy who voted to convict Trump based on a Democrat narrative of “insurrection” and then issued a press release to brag about it.
Six words, plus three more, and one looming number for good measure. Put them all together, and it spells potential political catastrophe for Cassidy in 2026.
