This year’s turkey dinner will be a bit less expensive than it was in 2024. But Thanksgiving is more than clogging our arteries with chlorine-washed wings, chemically filled stuffing, dinner rolls that can survive a nuclear war, and GMO-grown little onions. It is also about filling up the gas tank to visit Zohran Mamdani-loving in-laws who purchased a new home, and recording a political discussion-turned-shouting match on the latest iPhone model.
What do all these things have in common? Affordability.
Grateful for Affordability at Thanksgiving
How much will the annual feast cost this year? This is the $80 or $95 question.
The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute released the 2025 Thanksgiving Food Report, an annual assessment of how much US households are spending on the bird and fixings. Using pricing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Circana, and Nielsen, the cost of a ten-person Thanksgiving feast is expected to be 3% less for families when they gather later this month.
Estimated retail prices for the dinner table centerpiece are down nearly 4% from a year ago (for national brands). “National name brands show year-over-year savings, as America’s turkey producers and retailers coordinate all year to bring many birds to the supermarket for the rush of buying,” researchers said. “The turkey industry takes orders from the supermarkets months in advance for Thanksgiving. It looks like producers picked the right number of birds to prepare, and the price reflects the lower cost of feeding turkeys in a competitive market.”
Many of its complementary favorites are also available at a lower price at the supermarket. Private-brand dinner rolls are down 22%, name-brand frozen vegetables have declined 15%, a ten-pound bag of potatoes has dropped 1.5%, and pumpkin prices have slipped 3%. Prices for turkey stuffing, prepared gravy mix, and fresh cranberries also dipped by up to 4%.
Altogether, according to Wells Fargo, a Thanksgiving dinner for ten people, including turkey, stuffing, salad, cranberries, dinner rolls, and pumpkin pie, would cost $80 with store-brand products or $95 with name-brand products.
“This Thanksgiving, consumers have more control over their grocery budgets than they might expect. Thanks to strategic coordination between producers and retailers, and the growing strength of private label offerings, a full holiday meal for ten can be served for just $80,” the bank concluded in the report. “While inflation continues to impact certain categories like beef and dairy, shoppers who stick to a traditional Thanksgiving menu and shop wisely between national and store brands can unlock meaningful savings.”
Furthermore, if you are seeking deals, Walmart, Target, and Aldi are offering Thanksgiving meals at their lowest prices since 2019.
Food inflation remains a persistent concern for households nationwide. However, conditions are vastly superior to where they were four years ago. From February 2021 to October 2021, food inflation surged 4.4%. Within the same period this year, food prices have increased by 1.7%.
Fill ‘er Up
Put simply, gasoline prices are lower today than they were a year ago. The national average cost for a gallon of gas is slightly above $3, with a growing chorus of states reporting prices below $3 at local stations, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Pain at the pump has been nagging as of late; however, because of refinery maintenance in California, gas prices are a bit higher than they were heading into November.
“Still, the national average is lower than it was this time last year, and gas prices should remain on a quiet path as we get closer to Thanksgiving,” AAA said.
Is housing affordability becoming a reality? While not perfect, it has improved significantly from a year ago – at least in terms of borrowing costs.
For the week ending November 6, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.22%, new data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey show. Despite the uptick from the previous week, mortgage rates are down from close to 7% last year, saving prospective homebuyers a significant amount of money when they move into a house with a white picket fence.
“On a median-priced home, this could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year, showing that affordability is slowly improving,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement.
Although President Donald Trump’s tariffs have not resulted in inflation spiraling out of control, they have led to building price pressures for tariff-sensitive items. But one product has experienced deflation throughout the trade saga: smartphones.
In the 12 months ending in September, smartphone prices have plunged more than 14%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Even the latest iPhone 17 has not been penalized by the president’s levies, at least according to Apple CEO Tim Cook.
Affordability at the Polls
During election night coverage on November 4, exit polling data highlighted that financial issues remain the top concern for voters. The talking heads repeatedly espoused that affordability was the main topic at the ballot box. They blamed President Trump for not lowering New Jersey’s exorbitant electricity rates or reducing prices at local New York City grocery stores. But are things that bad?
Compared to November 2024, many economic conditions have shown significant improvement. It should be interesting to see what the next year brings to the Thanksgiving dinner table.
