A full decade after his entry into politics, to what extent will his influence carry on when he leaves the White House?
Even Donald Trump will become a lame duck one of these days. Despite the 45th and 47th president’s undeniable transformation of American politics, there will come a day when his towering presence starts to shrink. History has repeatedly demonstrated that this happens without fail following the midterm elections in a president’s second term. That is when the agenda of a chief executive not up for re-election will inevitably be subsumed by an ever-sharpening focus on the many contenders lining up to become the next leader of the Free World, and even a friendly Congress no longer bends fully to his will. While it is too early to prognosticate what will happen when Trump starts to lose his front-and-center perch, you can be sure that Republicans and Democrats far and wide are already thinking hard about it.
An Entire Decade Since Descending That Golden Escalator
We are now less than two weeks short of a decade since Trump first announced he was running for president. For better or worse, he has transformed American politics more than in any era since the 1960s. He has achieved what was once thought impossible: flipping the GOP into the party of the working class while Democrats have gone in the opposite direction, descending into the party of coastal elites. But what is Trump’s shelf life? When will his influence start to fade? Most importantly, will the Republican Party be able to consolidate its successes in 2016 and 2024 and stave off another trip to the political wilderness, as it experienced in 2020?
It is hard to argue that Trump’s success will automatically carry over to the man or woman who becomes the next GOP standard-bearer. How do you follow a leader who has cast such a long and unique shadow over the American political system? Will the popularity of the 47th president translate to, say, JD Vance, Sen. Tom Cotton, or Nikki Haley? Or will the both exhilarating and exhausting decade of Trump lead voters to seek a more placid, low-key successor?
The answer will depend not only on Trump’s residual popularity or the identity of the next one up for Republicans but also on the state of the opposing party. As deep into the ditch as the Democrats have fallen, it is almost inconceivable that they won’t have at least somewhat straightened themselves out by 2028. Next time around, they won’t be stuck with a relic like Joe Biden or a not-ready-for-primetime Kamala Harris.
Elections are not always won. Sometimes they are lost. Candidates who do not wow the voters can still become president if their opponent is weak. In 1988, George H.W. Bush was hardly an inspirational option, but the voters could not stomach Michael Dukakis. In 2000, the younger Bush, though widely mocked, prevailed against the wooden, inauthentic Al Gore. In 2020, Joe Biden was able to overcome his palpable shortcomings by hiding in his basement and taking potshots at Trump over his handling of the pandemic. One could also argue that in 2024, Trump was the beneficiary of extraordinarily weak opposition, which allowed him to overcome his most pronounced flaws and the ugly residue of Jan. 6.
Despite winning the Republican presidential nomination three times in a row, Trump is the closest the country has ever come to having an independent president. He never bought into GOP orthodoxy, attacked high-profile rivals, and set a course often in conflict with party regulars. Will traditional Republicans continue to ride the MAGA agenda once Trump is gone? Or will they return to their old ways, thinking they know a better way to sustain the party’s success?
Trump the Outlier
A new survey conducted by CNN/SSRS sheds light on the issue of what is likely to happen post-Trump. It reveals that Americans are becoming more and more fed up with both major political parties. When asked which party’s views are closer to their own on 13 different issues – including the federal budget, race, climate change, crime, and protecting democracy – an average of more than 30% of respondents answered “neither party.” On the issues of which party “can get things done,” has “strong leaders,” and is “the party of change,” Republicans easily outdistanced Democrats, but an average plurality of 43% said neither party. This suggests, unsurprisingly, that the GOP’s new swath of largely blue-collar voters was attracted to Trump, not his party. Will Republicans be able to hold those supporters, or will they return to what had long been their default choice, the Democrats?
This collapsing trust in the two parties, or even in the de facto two-party system, would seem to present the likelihood of a wide-open, post-Trump political landscape. Now is the time for both parties to plan their strategies for the new world we will enter, in which Trump is no longer present and accounted for, no longer attracting passionate support or opposition. Will Republicans keep riding the MAGA wave? Will Democrats come to their senses and bring forth a candidate who can appeal to the center, where elections are won? The answers are already in process and are crucial to understanding whether the radical change commanded by this 47th president will become the standard by which all future presidents are judged or just a bold asterisk in the history books.
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