You either trust the polls or you don’t.
He who lives by the poll dies by the poll. As President Donald Trump moves beyond the first 100 days of his second term, Democrats in the upper and lower chambers of Congress are keen to highlight his slipping approval ratings. Indeed, these polling numbers are delivered as concrete proof that the end is finally nigh for The Donald. Why then – if such confidence in these surveys is to be believed – do the same politicos not see warning signs for their own desultory satisfaction levels?
Schumer’s Polling Paradox
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) recently took the opportunity to highlight Trump’s falling numbers, gleefully stating that “Trump has the lowest 100-day approval rating since they started polling 80 years ago.” CNN – in a retort that must have had viewers checking to see if they were on the right channel – asked why the senator’s own approval was sitting at just 17%. The gentleman from New York grumbled and insisted that “polls come and go.”
In terms of destroying one’s own argument, this effort ranks pretty high on the list of political pratfalls. And yet, it has not stopped other leading Democratic figures from employing the same lack of logic.
When asked about the level of focus his party is devoting to El Salvador, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (also a New Yorker) responded, “Our reaction is that Donald Trump has the lowest public approval rating of any president in modern American history.” Again, this is a superb headline with the advantage of using the near-clickbait term “history.” Perhaps Jeffries would do well to examine the beam in his eye before beholding the mote in Trump’s.
After all, NBC’s polling has the Democratic Party at just 27% – a record low. CNN rates the party at 29%, its lowest approval rating in “history.” Despite the obvious hypocrisy, one has to wonder at the thought process behind believing only in polling that is favorable to one’s worldview.
A Cognitive Conundrum
Like beauty, polling reliability is in the eye of the beholder. In other words, you hear what you want to hear. However, the real issue might be that most surveys examine the full range of American attitudes rather than the subsection relevant to the current political leadership.
For example, Schumer comes across a series of polls that show Trump’s disapproval rating fluttering around 51.2% – as it is now according to the RealClear Politics average. That means that more people disapprove of the president than approve, right? Not so fast. A keen observer – notably not one looking solely to reinforce an inbuilt bias – may look at the last time Trump’s numbers were at 51.2% and then extrapolate from there. In fact, The Donald was suffering under the weight of this exact same negative approval in late October 2024, just days before he won the popular vote, the Electoral College, and all seven swing states.
A party cannot win if its base abandons it. Schumer and others in Democratic congressional leadership should be looking not at Trump’s approval across the entire country, but rather the approval of the Democratic Party by its voters.
To receive consecutive polls that put one’s party at a miserable 27% and 29% is not simply a case of “polls come and go.” It is a warning shot from the party faithful that you have lost your way.
Doc, I’m Sick! Don’t Give Me Medicine!
Since Trump won the White House in 2016, the Democratic Party has employed a single tool in its efforts to thwart his political rise: Hate Donald Trump. This may have seemed a successful tactic in November 2020, but surely such a notion should have been retired four years later when Trump sealed his triumphant return to Washington, DC.
Republican voters are unlikely to flip to support Democratic politicians, so the party in question needs to ensure that its base is locked in and then fight for the growing contingent of independent voters. According to NBC’s March polling, the collapse in approval was driven by Registered Democratic voters – 20% of whom had an unfavorable view of their team.
The voters seem to realize that being nothing but anti-Donald is not the best strategy for winning elections and does not inspire Americans to support the party. Why can’t Schumer and his congressional cohorts see this? Perhaps they can, but they are just stuck on a path that will lead them further into obscurity. Or could it be that they have spent so long listening to their legacy media allies that the Kool-Aid has started to taste just too good?
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