The results are in from yesterday’s elections and while the final ballots are still being tallied, it was a great day for Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City. In what was essentially a clean sweep, Democratic Party contenders overperformed in just about every race. What comes next is the narrative building in terms of how these victories can be used as tea leaves for the 2026 midterms.
And although the burgeoning story is that November 4 was a repudiation of the Donald Trump presidency, it’s worth remembering that all these contests were in reliably blue locations. But what does the data tell us?
Virginia Election Turnaround
Democratic Party candidate Abigail Spanberger swooped to victory with 57% versus 42% against GOP Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. While this was never going to be a very close race – especially with huge chunks of Virginians currently furloughed due the shutdown – Spanberger outperformed her polling numbers handily.
Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling aggregator had her ahead by 8.4%, but the election day 15% winning margin is well beyond what was expected. In fact, only one poll came anywhere near, a mid-October YouGov survey that called it just about right.
Two elements likely impacted Earle-Sears’ chances beyond just the DC-adjacent demographics. First, she has a contentious relationship with President Trump, who failed to endorse her. When the results of the 2022 midterms rolled in, Earle-Sears decided that Trump was almost entirely to blame – even though he was not in office. And second, running on the same ballot, Attorney General Jason Miyares decided early on polling day to politically stab her in the back, suggesting during a final TV spot that voters should split their ticket to ensure his own election. In the end, this latter element might not have made a huge difference to in-person on-the-day voting, but it couldn’t have helped.
Speaking of the Virginia AG Race
This contest was the only one where any surprises were expected. After trailing Democrat candidate Jay Jones for weeks without end, the release of text messages where Jones wished death upon the small children of a political rival, the polling started to shift. In the end an average of polls suggested just a 0.3% advantage for the embarrassed Democrat.
However, as the results poured in, it seems Virginians do not consider such a mentality disqualifying and Jones comfortably won 53% to 46%.
Notably, neither Spanberger nor other elected Democrats abandoned Jones, continuing to offer support despite his scandal, proving conclusively that, for some, tribal voting and party loyalty come before principle and morality.
A New Jersey Flop
Democrat Mikie Sherrill trounced Republican hopeful Jack Ciattarelli by 13 points, winning 56% of the votes compared to 43%. Recent headwinds for the GOP contender suggested that although a win would be unlikely, this could be a close race. It wasn’t.
Not a single poll predicted this kind of margin, and, in fact, an average of polls pointed to a difference of just 5.2%.
This was Ciattarelli’s second bite at the apple having come within three points of beating New jersey Governor Phil Murphy in 2021, it’s almost certainly his last. As Liberty Nation News’ Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner recently noted:
“He has run an effective campaign in a state that, while heavily blue, has elected GOP governors four times in the last 30 years, with Chris Christie and Christine Todd Whitman each serving two terms.”
New York City Nihilism?
With more than two million votes cast in the New York City mayoral election, this marks the biggest turnout since the John Lindsay blowout in 1969. Democrat candidate Zohran Mamdani won with just over 50% of the vote, beating out independent candidate former Governor Andrew Cuomo (41%) and Republican hopeful Curtis Sliwa (7%).
To be clear, Cuomo’s vote share of over 850,000 would have been enough to win any such contest since Rudy Giuliani in 1993. This suggests that despite Mamdani’s huge polling lead a significant minority of voters were committed to avoiding the socialist candidate’s entry to Gracie Mansion.
An aggregate of surveys gave Mamdani a 16.2% advantage; he was the only major candidate in yesterday’s elections that underperformed.
The Trump Narrative
There are victory laps aplenty today as the dust settles, with many claiming that this slate of elections is a damning indictment of Donald Trump. And while the final results are in no way positive for the president, neither are they shocking. After all, New Jersey is a largely blue state that hasn’t voted for a Republican president since George H.W. Bush, and Trump lost here in 2024 by almost six points. The same is largely true of Virginia where Trump again came up short by roughly six points, and of course, the last GOP candidate chosen by The Old Dominion was Bush the younger. New York City was an almost 70% blowout for Kamala Harris.
But ultimately, Trump is the president, and as captain of the ship, everything reflects on him. And it is not just the wins that Democratic Party supporters will be celebrating, but also the margins by which their candidates exceeded the polls.
