Feeling Europhoria – Trump Reaches Long-Awaited EU Trade Deal

A “50/50 chance” turns into certainty.

For the past few months, the United States and the European Union have engaged in a cycle of on-again, off-again tariffs, tit-for-tat retaliation, and harsh rhetoric. With only a few days until the much-anticipated August 1 tariff deadline, President Donald Trump visited Scotland and secured an EU trade deal. Like other agreements announced this month, Trump scored significant advantages for US industries and workers.

Inside the EU Trade Deal

Alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President Trump confirmed an EU trade deal. The headline emerging from the meeting is that the administration will impose a 15% tariff on most European goods entering the United States, including automobiles. This is lower than the 30% that Trump had threatened to implement, but higher than the 10% baseline tariffs that European negotiators had hoped for over the past few weeks.

Officials also unveiled that certain European products would be exempt from levies, including aircraft and their parts, as well as some chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, the new 15% tariff rate would not be in addition to import duties already instituted by the White House, such as steel, aluminum, copper, and automobiles. Another key feature of the EU trade deal is that the 27-member bloc will purchase $750 billion worth of US energy, acquire hundreds of billions of dollars in military equipment, and invest $600 billion in the US economy.

“It’s a very powerful deal, it’s a very big deal, it’s the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said Sunday alongside von der Leyen. She said it is a “good deal” that came through “tough negotiations,” adding:

“The starting point was an imbalance, a surplus on our side and a deficit on the US side. And we wanted to rebalance the trade relations. And we wanted to do it in a way that trade goes on between the two of us across the Atlantic, because the two biggest economies should have a good trade flow between us. And I think we hit exactly the point we wanted to find.”

According to the US Trade Representative’s Office, the US total goods trade deficit with the EU was $235.6 billion last year, up nearly 13% from 2023.

A chorus of European heads of state applauded the deal. Ireland said the pact “creates a new era of stability.” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni agreed that the EU trade deal averts a “direct clash between the two sides of the Atlantic.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that a trade conflict had been averted. Netherlands Prime Minister Dick Schoof averred that while 0% tariffs would have been preferable, the agreement provides more market and business clarity.

Financial markets were bracing for a trade agreement with Europe since relations are valued at nearly $2 trillion. In futures trading, investors were generally pleased as the leading US stock market benchmarks remained firmly in the green. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.4% and the tech-driven Nasdaq Composite Index surged 0.5% following the news.

Next Stop: China

China will be the next major test for the current administration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with his counterpart, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Stockholm on July 28. While the two sides have an August 12 deadline for their current trade truce, Bessent has already informed the press that the date will likely be extended.

Beijing and Washington have previously reached an agreement on tariffs and exports, and Bessent believes they can begin laying the groundwork for discussions on broader economic issues. Indeed, the goal of Trumponomics 2.0 has been to rebalance global trade, effectively turning the world’s second-largest economy into a consumer.

However, will China follow the same path as Europe and Southeast Asian countries by accepting higher tariffs, agreeing to concessions, and investing significant sums in the United States? If so, Trump might need to begin etching his face onto Mount Rushmore.

Here Comes the Pain

The Financial Times provided the best summary of the EU trade deal. “There is no hiding the fact the EU was rolled over by the Trump juggernaut, said one ambassador. ‘Trump worked out exactly where our pain threshold is,’” the newspaper wrote. Despite the panic in the streets that occurred this past spring, the president is, for now, proving his critics wrong. Not only are other countries accepting higher tariff rates for their exports, but they are also effectively paying the United States for the privilege of doing business with the world’s largest economy.