Five Take Aways From the Reagan National Defense Survey

When it comes to national security, peace through strength remains the driver.

The Ronald Reagan Institute gauges respondents’ attitudes toward national security. As in the past, the survey shows a generally favorable assessment of America’s capability to hold its position as a world leader. The views reflect the polling of 2,507 US adults. Despite many topics, polling shows significant partisan splits. However, the results underscore continued American support for “peace through strength.”

Survey Says: US Must Have the Best Military

Americans want the US to be a capable international leader, with a military ready and able to defend US interests. That was the overall theme. Here are five takeaways from this year’s survey:

Compelling Support for US International Leadership and Formidable Military: As the assessment showed, “Record high numbers of Americans support international engagement.” Almost two-thirds of those polled believe that the US “should be more engaged and take the lead in international affairs, while a third prefer less engagement.” The split along partisan lines showed that nearly 80% of MAGA Republicans favored “strong American leadership” abroad, while just 57% of Democrats believed the US should show greater leadership in world affairs. These statistics are of note since MAGA Republicans have taken a position generally against foreign entanglements, and President Trump continues to push an “America First” agenda.

One area where both Republicans and Democrats agreed was the need for a formidable military capability. Nine out of ten respondents said it was important for the US to have a strong military and believed that peace in the world is more likely when the US is “the strongest power.” An impressive number of those polled thought the US should have a force structure capable of supporting a “two-war” contingency.

General Support for Defense Investments and Innovations: Over two-thirds of those polled support President Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense system. There is widespread concern among survey respondents (80%) about the US being held hostage to Chinese rare earth elements and semiconductors. Additionally, “Public views on artificial intelligence (AI) are evolving. Twenty-seven percent say greater AI integration in US military systems is a good idea (up from 20% in 2023).” When respondents learned that subject matter experts believe AI could give the US a strategic advantage, “the number who support integrating AI into US military systems rises to 38%.” Educating Americans on the safeguards needed for AI and the technology edge it gives the US is the challenge ahead for the Department of War.

Decline in Trust and Confidence in the Military as an Institution: The Reagan Institute poll assessment reported: “Overall public confidence in the US military as an institution has declined significantly since the first Reagan National Defense Survey in 2018.” The current survey showed that “49% of Americans report a great deal of confidence in the military – down 21 points from 2018…” There is a stark partisan divide in confidence in the US Armed Forces. Republican “high confidence in the military” increased from just under half of those polled in 2023 to over two-thirds in this recent survey. Democrats’ confidence in the military, on the other hand, declined from 47% to 33%. The break along party lines is based on a general perspective as to what the US military should be.

Republicans believe, for example, that military service should be based on merit, not identity as reflected in diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. Democrats favor identity distinctions as the metric and back DEI. “On eliminating diversity, equity, and inclusion programs across the Pentagon‚ 76% of Republicans approve, while 75% of Democrats disapprove.” Opinions also split along party lines over using active-duty troops and federalized National Guard soldiers for fortifying border security (87% of Republicans were in favor compared to only 33% of Democrats).

Bipartisan Support for Allies and Overseas Commitments Increasing: The survey revealed a growing support for fortifying allies and friends when facing US adversaries – and two great examples are Ukraine and Taiwan. A total of 62% of Americans, which includes 57% of Republicans and 72% of Democrats, say they want Ukraine to prevail over Russia. Those saying they want more weapons sent to Ukraine are up by over nine points since last year, having risen to 64%. The top priority for both parties is that winning means Russia relinquishing all territorial gains. Though unrealistic, it does indicate the level of support for Ukraine. Respondents to the survey also expressed strong bipartisan support for the US backing Taiwan. More than three-quarters in total – 81% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats – agreed “it is important for the US military to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.”

China and Its Axis Top the List of Greatest Threats: When prioritizing military threats to the US, 48% of respondents ranked China first. Only 26% believed Russia was the top threat. When asked for their “single main concern about China,” 24% said economic practices, 23% chose the Chinese military buildup, 19% named its foreign policy, and 15% said Beijing’s human rights abuses. The one issue both Republicans and Democrats agreed on was their concern about the growing cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

The Biggest Problem: Low Confidence in the Military

Of all the topics on which those polled responded, low confidence in the US military’s ability to keep the country safe was the most disturbing. Barely half of those surveyed believe the US Armed Forces can defend the homeland. Worse yet, “Fewer think it can win a war overseas (49%), and fewer still think it can deter foreign aggression (45%).”

When asked what Americans attribute this erosion to, Rachel Hoff, policy director at the Reagan Institute, told Fox News the survey consistently highlights one theme: “It all has to do with something around kind of the politicization of the military…The American people really want to keep politics out of the military and keep the military focused on its core warfighting mission.”

These perceptions present an enormous challenge for the Trump national security team to turn around. What is clear is that Americans want the US to have the world’s most capable military, and they don’t believe it has it now.

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The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.