Forget the Noise: Election Truths Remain in Play

As Minnesota threatens to bring chaos to the nation in the form of George Floyd-style protests, one would be forgiven for thinking that Republican hopes in 2026 are going the way of the dodo. After all, the infamous Summer of Love that swept the country in 2020 heralded the defeat (albeit temporarily) of the sitting president. But just about every election comes down to one simple truth that has stood the test of time.

Carville Called It

In 1992, Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Clinton’s top strategist, James Carville, declared that the key to election success was a simple phrase: “It’s the economy, stupid.” He was proven correct then, and, as time has shown, it’s an adage that has continued to hallmark almost every election since.

Certainly, each side of the political aisle has its own cri de cœur. For the right, it tends to be the erosion of culture and values, and, for the left, it’s intersectionality and the diminishing of democracy (real or imagined on both sides of the spectrum). However, cutting across the noise is the economic conditions of day-to-day living. Call it a “cost-of-living crisis” or an “affordability issue,” each individual’s fiscal condition is most often the driving motivation – with one major exception.

In late 2019, the Trump economy was going great guns; Gallup polling registered just 9% of people who had the economy as their top issue. Without COVID, it’s a pretty sure bet that President Donald Trump would have won a second consecutive term. Let’s dig into the data to see what happened under President Joe Biden.

Starting in April 2021 – soon after Biden took office – economic concerns began their shocking rise, up to over 40% as the most important issue by 2022. When election season rolled around in 2024, that figure was at 43 % – it’s no wonder Trump won in a landslide, and the Biden/Harris administration was kicked to the curb.  So what does this mean for Donald Trump and the Republicans during this year’s November midterms?

This Election? It’s Complicated

First, a major caveat. This is a series of congressional elections rather than a presidential ballot. Historically, these are treated by the voters as an opportunity for grievances – a Festivus come early. It is rare, although not unprecedented, that the party in power gains during these contests. In the last 80 years, only two presidents have managed to increase House seats: Bill Clinton and George W. Bush – notably in back-to-back midterms. Donald Trump, even during the economic heyday of 2018, managed to lose 40 seats; Barack Obama, at the height of his star power in 2010, somehow jettisoned an enormous 63. To be clear: The odds are against a congressional GOP revival.

And yet, it is often wise to look beyond the true-blue Democrat voters and the blood-red Republican followers and seek the opinion of those ever-mercurial independent or swing voters. As recent Gallup polling indicates, 35% of respondents rate the economy as one of the most important issues, and a huge chunk of those independents are included in this cohort.

Losing the Middle?

A recent New York Times/Sienna survey showed that among independents, a whopping 52% felt the country was worse off than one year ago. Notably, the “all respondents” category came in at 49%, saying things are “worse off,” with the remainder being split between “better off” (32%) and “about the same” (19%).

Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling aggregator has President Trump underwater on the economy by more than 15 points. That’s a steep hill to climb on the most important issue of the day. And yet, what we’ve seen in the last month is a strong pivot toward “affordability” from the administration. Selling that proposition will be Trump’s big challenge over the next ten months.

Should political mavens wish to dig deeper into the GOP messaging, they would be wise to consider the other two facets espoused by Carville just prior to Clinton’s successful elevation to the White House: Change versus more of the same and “don’t forget healthcare.” These three pillars (including the economy) were instructions to a motivated electioneering machine determined to make George H.W. Bush a one-term president. If Trump and his Republican colleagues want to buck history, embracing election truisms is not a bad place to start.