Polls are often used as political cudgels to beat home an opinion that the purveyor wants to become mainstream. Consider the egregious surveys that suggested Hillary Clinton had a 95% probability of winning the 2016 election! But the data, despite the delivery, is valuable and provides a snapshot of not only politico popularity but also the state of the nation and the public psyche. As such, we present the most fascinating recent polls and what they mean for America.
Trump Approval
An average of polls presented by RealClear Politics shows that Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater to the tune of 4.2 points. This makes him more popular than he was in April (-7.1%) and less popular than he was in February (+6.2%). Indeed, it’s quite the rollercoaster ride for presidential approval. But just how accurate is an average of polls that treat all surveys with the same weight?
Consider this: In the political polling world, surveys are often regarded as valid based on various key factors; one is sample size – the greater a poll’s scope, the better the result. Another is the type of person asked: adults, registered voters, or likely voters. When it comes to gold star data, likely voters are always the best. So, what happens when we parse the numbers?
If we try to get the most relevant and accurate reading, we should include only polls from the current month, which have a sample size of 1,000 or more participants and draw from a pool of likely voters. When we apply this rubric, Trump has an approval of plus 7.5% – quite the distinction from the aggregate figure.
Right Direction Polls?
Earlier this month, Liberty Nation News Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner asked the following:
“Beyond approval numbers for the president that tend to combine personal popularity with current job performance, how are we to judge the way people actually feel about the trajectory of their lives today? What is the best way to reach what we might call a holistic conclusion about the collective level of satisfaction among the American public?”
The answer was Right Direction/Wrong Track surveys, which provide insight into America’s “optimism and pessimism on a broad scale.” As Mr. Donner points out, the last ten such polls conducted before the 2024 election averaged a mere 27% for those who felt the country was headed in the right direction (with scores ranging from 17% to 34%). However, since the election, the national positivity has risen an enormous 63% to its near-record high of 44%!
This demonstrates that the public is more optimistic than it has been in 16 years.
But what is the value of measuring optimism? Well, for one thing, it’s a great predictor of electoral success. With the 2026 midterms just around the corner, such a high percentage will cause both jubilation and distress in opposite political camps.
The American Mindset
Much discussion has been given to the Overton window – also known as “the window of discourse.” This is a rough snapshot of what is considered acceptable in public communications. The window shifts naturally with time, but as politics and culture become more intertwined, it has come to represent what is acceptable in political views.
Consider just a few short years ago, Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were hellbent on deporting as many illegal migrants as they could – indeed, the sheer number of successful deportations they achieved would make Border Czar Tom Homan blush. And yet, for those on the political left, “no human is illegal” has become the dominant mantra, with riots ensuing to block deportations in many major American cities.
But does the progressive, open-border mindset represent the majority?
Napolitan News Service released a poll on June 9 that asked the following question: “Suppose you had a choice between four presidential candidates with equal skill and temperament. Which would you choose?”
The possible options and responses were:
- Trump Policies: 35%
- Traditional Republican: 16%
- [Bernie] Sanders Policies: 22%
- Traditional Democrat: 20%
As you can see, Trump Policies wins out by a massive margin, suggesting that, despite the near-total negative coverage by the legacy media, his America First agenda is not only popular but dominant in the American psyche.
The Relevant Constitution
The constant drumbeat of “constitutional crisis” in the legacy media has had notable pundits questioning the usefulness and relevance of America’s most important founding documents. Barely a week goes by without claims that the US Constitution is not worth the parchment it is written on, or that – and this is especially true from the progressive left – it is not suitable for the modern era.
Americans, however, disagree.
Prior to the 2024 election, the Cato Institute polled 2,000 Americans and found that “70% believe the American Founders would be disappointed with how our country is following the Constitution today.” It’s a worrying number, but it’s not entirely bad news. The same survey reports that a whopping 85% have a favorable opinion of the Constitution (whether they believe it is being followed correctly or not), while 94% “believe that the Constitution is at least somewhat important for protecting their liberty.”
In other words, the Constitution, when properly adhered to, is considered a net positive by most Americans.
Of the rights inherent in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, the most important aspects were “equal protection under the law,” coming in at 77%, and the “right to privacy” at 76%. Essentially, Americans want to be left alone, but when they are caught up in something, it had better be fair.
And How About That Funeral?
Our final polling sneak peek comes courtesy of Napolitan News Service, which sought to find the approval ratings of those further down the food chain than President Trump. The survey focused on five notable figures: VP JD Vance, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). While all five men had negative overall approval ratings, there is one name – and one number – that stood out.
As the leader of the Democratic caucus in the lower chamber, Hakeem Jeffries has been the face of the party in Congress and the standard bearer of the political left’s flag since Nancy Pelosi stepped back in January 2023. With such a prominent position, one might rightly assume that his approval ratings are a source of division. And indeed, they are. Just 30% have a favorable view of the Big Apple representative, versus 35% who are not encouraged by his performance.
But most damning is that 44% of the survey’s respondents have either never heard of him or have no opinion. In the world of politics, invisibility for a public figure is as good as a coroner’s verdict.
Senator Thune has an equally remarkable lack of public presence, but he has only been in the limelight since January of this year and has yet to make his mark. Mr. Jeffries, however, has been given ample opportunity to espouse his vision and his bona fides on countless media shows and in the pages of the popular press, and yet, he has failed to register in the minds of the voting public.
As Oscar Wilde famously quipped, “The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.” It seems Hakeem Jeffries is suffering under the weight of his own anonymity.
Dig Deeper Into the Themes Discussed in This Article!
Liberty Vault: The Bill of Rights
Liberty Vault: The Constitution of the United States
