Beyond the partisan punditry, for President Donald Trump, the war in Iran appears to be coming to a conclusion. It may yet turn out to be not the type of conclusion he and his administration had envisioned when the first strikes were launched on February 28, but with just several weeks to go before Congress has to step in and either declare or demur, everything is now focused on the exit strategy.
Meet the New Boss…
Trump shared a lengthy Truth Social post on Monday, March 30, highlighting where the US currently stands and what the next steps will be. He began, “The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.” According to the New York Post, the “inside man” in Tehran is Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. It’s a position of power for sure, and in reality, remains one of the few official posts that could engage with Team America.
Israel has shown itself to be incredibly effective at taking out top-tier individuals, but not quite as good as Iran itself. To be the go-between in negotiations is a perilous position at best, and a sword of Damocles at worst. If the Iranian regime thinks you’re too soft, you’re gone. If the US or Israel feels they would be better off with a new interlocuter, your removal might be swift and final.
Ghalibaf is walking an unenviable tightrope, and with Trump issuing a one-week ultimatum on substantive discussions, he is at great risk – but also, in line to earn the greatest rewards should peace be achieved.
Which brings us to the next steps for Trump and the potential for escalation.
A Crippled Iran
The president’s social media warning shot continued:
“Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched.’ This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47-year ‘Reign of Terror. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
So far, it is estimated that the US has targeted and struck well over 12,000 sites in the region, including naval vessels, munitions production factories, and military posts. Largely untouched, however, is Iran’s Kharg Island, where almost all of the nation’s oil passes through. Tehran has been prosecuting its side of the war through economic distress. Certainly, there have been missile strikes, but by limiting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, it has effectively caused pain to large chunks of the world in order to pressure America to back down.
If Kharg is destroyed – or perhaps even seized – Iran’s future prospects become more than a little bleak. This move by itself would set Iran and its regional power back decades, but it would also inflict economic pain on a number of US allies.
With Trump’s recent moves against Venezuela, unlocking its oil-producing potential, America would be (for the most part) insulated against extreme sticker shock in the energy markets. This raises the question of why Kharg is looming large internationally. It is no secret that traditional US allies have been openly hostile to the president prosecuting a war in Iran, but if the benefits that these nations receive from the oil-rich regime are set to come crashing down, they might start applying their own pressure.
Self-interest is the greatest of motivators. And as far as endgames go, getting the international community in lockstep is a pretty final move.
