Polls show it’s a lot closer than it should be.
Voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District go to the polls today in what could turn out to be a close race with national implications. The special election is taking place due to the resignation of House Republican Mark Green, who left his seat to accept a position in the private sector. The Tennessee election is considered critical for the GOP to maintain majority control in the lower chamber.
The race pits controversial Democrat State Rep. Aftyn Behn – often referred to as the AOC of Tennessee – against Republican Matt Van Epps. With a background as a progressive activist and political organizer, Behn made headlines after a video surfaced of her saying she despises all things Nashville – from the food to the music. In what is known to be a heavily Republican district that Trump won by 20 points, Behn is running as a far-left Democrat. Were she to triumph in today’s election, it would send shockwaves through the GOP.
Van Epps is a West Point graduate who served as a helicopter pilot. He ran roughshod over ten primary opponents for an easy victory.
Tennessee Election — Bellwether or Anomaly
Political strategists see the results of this election as a sign of things to come in the midterms. Both parties are flooding the race with cash, as Democrats try to pull an upset and the Republicans try to hold on to what has generally been a safe seat. According to the AP, Van Epps outspent Behn early on, but Federal Election Commission filings show Behn raised about $1 million to Van Epps’ $590,000 in November.
After decisive Democratic wins in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia last month, a loss of a congressional seat in Tennessee will send GOP politicos reeling. But good news could be bad news for the Democrats, as it might signal strength over the Republicans, while also confirming suspicions that the far left is now in the catbird seat as the ruling elite of the party.
Democratic strategist Julian Epstein made a similar point when he called Behn “not a serious candidate” in an interview on Fox News Live. He went on to say, “She’s certainly an extreme candidate. She said she hates Nashville, where she would represent. She’s for defunding the police, [and] a whole host of very far-left sort of Democratic socialist ideas.”
The congressional race has become so important that both the president and former Vice President Kamala Harris have been involved in pushing their man or woman over the top. This is the last of a half-dozen special congressional elections in 2025. Until now, no House seats have been flipped by either party. The GOP currently enjoys a slim margin in the lower chamber, with little wiggle room: 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats. The recent resignation of Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene doesn’t help matters, as the GOP advantage is razor-thin, which makes the stakes in Tennessee’s election today unusually high.
The latest poll conducted by Emerson has Van Epps up by two points, 49 to 47.
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