The most recent stage of the conflict Iran began on Oct. 7 is into its second week, and the Islamic Republic is getting routed. Israeli aircraft soar freely above Iran as the mullahs, their remaining commanders, and their nuclear scientists dart furtively from one hiding hole to the next. The Israelis have reportedly destroyed two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, Tehran’s drones have been completely ineffective, and its nuclear programs are getting hammered.
This campaign has fundamentally changed the war. Military professionals will study it obsessively, and Israel deserves massive credit for inflicting so much damage at so little cost. Donald Trump may soon unleash at least some American forces on Iran’s remaining nuclear facilities, and it is time to consider what comes after that.
For Iran, there is no remaining achievable objective other than survival. Its terrorist minions failed to destroy Israel, its missile and drone arsenal has been a dud, and Israel stopped Iran’s nuclear program, according to CIA director John Ratcliffe, at the one-yard line. While his subordinates die in droves, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been reduced to pathetically taunting Trump online, effectively daring the president to kill him. After an Iranian attack pummeled the Soroka hospital on Thursday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Israel is ready to oblige him.
Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran. This would be a just goal and thus a worthy one, but an air campaign will probably not lead to that kind of victory. The United States has demanded unconditional surrender three times and had to send in the troops twice—against the Confederacy and Nazi Germany—to get it. Imperial Japan surrendered before being invaded, but only after enduring years of military defeats, privation from the U.S. Navy cutting off supplies, carpet bombing of extraordinary ferocity, and ultimately two atomic bomb blasts.
For now, invasions, blockades, and nuclear strikes seem off the table. Some of the remaining options for Jerusalem and Washington are:
Forever war: If Israel, possibly with American help, destroys Iran’s nuclear program and then reaches some sort of accommodation with Iran, the ensuing “peace” will be of the type Ambrose Bierce described in The Devil’s Dictionary: “a period of cheating between two periods of fighting.” As they have shown time and again, Iran’s leaders will use any ceasefire to rebuild its terrorist armies, long-range arsenal, and nuclear program that are currently in shambles.
This choice might stop the bloodletting temporarily, but it would leave Tehran free to continue its assassination campaigns in the West, one target of which was then-candidate Trump, and other devilries nearer to home. Unless the peace agreement somehow demilitarizes Iran, this option would lead to more American deaths.
Regime change: Finding a new person, or group, to seize control of Iran could resolve that dilemma. Some of the diaspora are convinced that the Iranian people want a peaceful democracy, and popular protests might lead to one. But there were similar hopes when the shah fled in 1979, and they were dashed: In revolutionary environments, even initially small bands of determined fanatics like the ayatollahs can emerge on top. But if someone whose mind has remained unwarped by the revolution were able to gain control of the state and agree to dismantle the nuclear arsenal and cease exporting terrorism, the war could end on better terms. Israel’s virtual annihilation of Iran’s senior military leadership could open up just such a chance. Many colonels have led successful coups.
Regime collapse: The ongoing destruction of Iran’s security services could open up another scenario. The Soviet collapse was relatively peaceful in part because the Belarusian, Russian, and Ukrainian presidents initiated it and maintained order in the empire as it dissolved. But if Iran’s government collapses and the Persian center tries to reimpose control over the various minorities, Iran’s neighbors and other nearby powers would move in too. The Arab states might vie over the oil-rich Arab southwest and beyond and Azerbaijan could extend its umbrella over the Turkic Azeris. Along the eastern border, Pakistan would try to squelch any Baluch drive for independence while India attempts to open a transportation corridor through there into Central Asia, likely with Baluch support. This could be a bigger Syria.
Some of these outcomes are darker than others, and the options would intersect in complicated and unpredictable ways. For example, an attempted coup could collapse the regime rather than change it. And Tehran’s inhabitants might depose Khamenei if they know the alternative is Iran’s immolation.
In the face of such risks, continuing the forever war might sound appealing. But this regime shows little interest in self-preservation and refuses peace even when continuing the war is not only pointless, but also could lead to further nightmares.
One thing is certain: Trump is right—these suicidal, murderous fanatics must not come anywhere near the bomb.
