Is Chuck Schumer Ready for Democrat Wargames?

Power ain’t what it used to be.

In the 1983 movie Wargames, in which a precocious teen attempts to avert thermonuclear war by rationalizing with a supercomputer, the moral lesson was that “the only winning move is not to play.” With many in his own party claiming capitulation over the government shutdown, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer may be caught in a similar conundrum.

As another notable New York politico proceeds to snap at his heels as a potential challenger in next year’s midterms, the shift from left to far left for the Big Apple raises burning questions about Schumer’s future in the party he – at least nominally – controls.

Schumer and the Old Guard

It is no secret that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is involved in trying to shift the messaging on what it means to be a politician in the Democratic Party. As a fellow member of the Democratic Socialists of America, she can claim the recent Zohran Mamdani victory as both an ideological win and political portent.

It seems a significant number of New York City voters are all-in on socialist policies, and the state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984. AOC may see this as her best opportunity to topple a practically entrenched staple of her party.

And there appears to be an appetite for a primary contest. New York-based political consultant Susan Del Perico told The Hill that Schumer’s chances of surviving a primary were beyond slim:

“He’s a political animal, which means he’s smart enough to know when he’s at checkmate… At the end of the day, his political career has run its course. It’s been admirable and successful, but it’s done.”

“She beats him in a primary,” Del Perico concluded. It’s difficult to argue otherwise.

Two Strikes for Schumer

The recent federal shutdown was a disaster in political messaging, and more so for the messenger. After six weeks of complaints about Republicans refusing to open the government, seven Democrats crossed the aisle (along with one independent), and proved to the nation that it was a lack of Democrat cooperation that was holding up SNAP payments and government worker pay. Most notably, it was not the Senate minority leader who engaged in negotiations with the GOP. Rumbles in the Swamp suggest that it was Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire who reached out to come to a compromise; one might wonder what the point of being minority leader is if you are going to abdicate negotiations.

Fairly or not, Schumer takes the blame for this extended government hiatus, much like he did back in March when he backed the last funding bill. Six months ago, he was pilloried by his own team for giving in, and now he is receiving the same treatment for standing firm. When you are on a losing streak, it’s tough to start winning.

So, what is Mr. Schumer’s best play?

Back to Wargames

In terms of notoriety, pollster YouGov has AOC as the sixth most popular politician in the country. Chuck Schumer comes in 72nd. But what about numbers? The New York senator last won re-election in 2022 with roughly 3.3 million votes cast in his favor, whereas Ocasio-Cortez only needed to muster 130,000 votes to best her conservative challenger in 2024 – it’s a big difference. But consider the groundswell of votes on November 4 this year for mayor-elect Mamdani – more than one million folks in America’s largest city opted for the pro-socialist candidate; that’s support AOC’s brand of politics can likely count on.

Of course, 2028 is a long way off, and a lot can happen in between, but when the rumors and primary threats are already shaping up so far out, one might wonder how long Chuck Schumer can resist the pressure. Naturally, he has a range of options. First, he can announce that he will not be seeking re-election; it’s an easy out that allows him to put a dignified ending on his more than 25 years in the Senate. Second, he can try and steer his minority party to majority status in the 2026 midterms – a tall task considering the electoral math, but it would certainly cement his reputation as a power player.

And then, of course, he has a third option: He can fight like the third chimpanzee waiting to get on Noah’s Ark as the rain begins to fall; it may not result in success, but you don’t survive decades in DC politics without being a brawler. The danger here is that such infighting does damage to the entire Democratic Party brand. After all, the Democrats versus the democratic socialists is an ideological wargame which only one side can really win. It’s all very well engaging in internecine warfare behind closed doors (not bleeding in public), but a major figure brawl for one of the most prominent Senate seats in the nation is about as public as it gets.

For the future of the party Schumer represents – if not necessarily for himself – perhaps his only winning move is not to play at all.