A Mideast summit this Friday looks like it will play host to a group of countries that claim to want to save Iran from U.S. strikes—but in reality want to bury the Islamic Republic alive.
For Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which both plan to be represented at the meetup in Istanbul, it’s pretty straightforward. The Saudis are rivals for Iran’s influence and power projection around the Gulf, and Egypt stands to benefit from a loosening of Iranian proxies’ troublemaking in the Red Sea shipping lanes and its sponsorship of Hamas.
The reason for Turkey and Qatar’s bad-faith participation in the summit becomes clear when you see the kind of proposed “solutions” coming out of Ankara. Haaretz reports: “Turkey might propose, among other things, that the enriched uranium in Iran — including around 440 kilograms (970 pounds) that are enriched to 60 percent — be transferred to Turkey, with a promise that it would never be returned to Iran.”
There’s no reason to spend time listing all that’s wrong with that idea: Everything is wrong with it. But the Turks might as well shoot their shot; Haaretz notes that Russia has offered to hold the nuclear material for Iran and that “Trump may see Turkey as a more reliable entity than Russia.” Well, the planet has yet to see an entity less reliable than Putin’s Russia, so it’s all relative.
Though Ankara’s diplomats will never say so, Turkey is essentially proposing that Iran and Turkey switch places, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the steward of all the mullahs’ ill-gotten gains. Nuclear material? Put it in Turkey. Terrorist proxies around the region? Let them answer only to Turkey. Russia’s regional patsy? Turkey reporting for duty, comrade. Counterweight to Israel? Turkey.
The Qataris are playing a similar game. They have an American air base and have ingratiated themselves with Trump’s team. They may be Iran’s ally, but they do not need Iran’s protection. Iran’s newfound weakness poses minimal threat to Qatar, but Doha stands to gain substantial clout in Tehran’s absence. The Qataris, therefore, don’t want Iran to be destroyed by American and Israeli strikes, but they would like Iran to be locked into its current state of weakness, preferably through a deal that would freeze it in place without enabling its resurgence.
Right now, Iran doesn’t have a lot of friends, even among its friends.
According to Axios, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with the foreign ministers of Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in attendance.
The UAE’s presence on that list is interesting as well. When plans for postwar Gaza were first being discussed, one semi-serious suggestion was that Gaza simply become part of the United Arab Emirates. It would solve the problem of Gaza’s radicalism and of its fuzzy sovereignty.
Well, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that such an arrangement is back on the table in the form of an Emirati civilian administration of the enclave. The UAE unsurprisingly denied the report, but the timing of this trial balloon makes sense. Iran, again, is weak—and the Islamist vultures are circling. Turkey has managed to elbow its way into the picture of postwar Gaza despite the Israelis’ opposition. Qatar wants, very simply, to keep a remnant of Hamas alive to be a permanent resource drain on Israel. The Emiratis, however, will be easy for Trump to work with. Why not just give them the strip and let it bloom?
Trump is unlikely to sign off on a such a plan, of course. But its suggestion still has a value, just as there is value in this gathering on Friday so long as it reminds Trump of this key fact: No one in the region wants to see Iran get up off the mat, nor should the U.S.
