It turns out that running your yap mouth to your heart’s content even as your brain lags far behind — if it even bothers getting its shoes on at all — isn’t a recipe for electoral success, even on the Democratic side.
Alas, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is finding that out too late. The soon-to-be-former U.S. representative is apparently also going to add soon-to-be-former U.S. Senate candidate to her résumé after early returns in the Democratic Texas primary Tuesday night tanked her odds on betting markets.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi had Crockett at 1 percent chance of winning as of 8 p.m. Central, after most polls had closed in Texas, with state Rep. James Talarico at 99 percent. While KDFW-TV reported that judges were allowing Dallas County to keep polls open until 9 p.m. — two hours after polls closed in most of the state — after some voters were turned away or directed to the incorrect polling place, this hasn’t moved her odds in a favorable direction.
KALSHI 99% PROJECTION: James Talarico wins the Texas Democratic Senate nomination pic.twitter.com/DDwdsQ9H2L
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) March 4, 2026
While Talarico only had 52.4 percent of the vote to 46.4 percent for Crockett as of 8 p.m. Central, according to NBC News, the key is that Crockett wasn’t running up the score in counties where she should have been way ahead. Talarico was beating benchmarks there and elsewhere:
Talarico is beating the benchmarks in Collin County. Not looking good for Crockett pic.twitter.com/hgKzy3EqPy
— BeshearStan (@BeshearStan) March 4, 2026
We are missing some major metros for Crockett on the API, but Talarico crushes it in the rurals. Gotta say, Talarico seems to be the favorite by far in the primary. pic.twitter.com/r3My51Rh0I
— America First Insight (@AF_Insight) March 4, 2026
In fact, it had gotten bad enough that Crockett was already blaming nefarious forces for keeping her from the nomination:
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is now blaming cheating for why she certainly will be losing her bid for Texas Democrat Senate nominee to James Talarico.
Kalshi is giving Talarico a 90% chance of winning and Crockett only 10%.
Crockett is fired!pic.twitter.com/Wr8GjVrQVB
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) March 4, 2026
As a conservative, I’m slightly disappointed to see that Crockett almost certainly won’t be running against whoever the Republicans put up. (Given that it’s a race with a number of candidates, including three who polled over 10 percent, that one is almost certain to end in a runoff on May 26.) However, as an observer who likes to see sanity prevail, I have to at least hand it to the Democrats: They didn’t succumb to their instincts and nominate the craziest woman in the room.
Crockett began her career as an off-brand annex to The Squad™, someone who was too ridiculous even by their low standards. When she wasn’t speaking in clips that require more asterisks than Lance Armstrong’s career cycling record, she was using fine logic like this:
Jasmine Crockett: We need illegals in the US because “we done pickin cotton” pic.twitter.com/DinxreioTt
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) December 13, 2025
She came to national attention after she not only called out former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green of Georgia as having a “bleach blonde bad built butch body” during a clash of the mental titans in a House Oversight Committee hearing, but trademarked the phrase as “B6.” Unfortunately, this went predictably awry when her people misspelled her own name on the T-shirt bearing the slogan:
“Crockrtt” … must be how it’s pronounced? pic.twitter.com/EkZnvpMGfB
— sgeb0 (@sgeb0) May 20, 2024
However, when Crockett entered the Senate race late last year, she was the prohibitive favorite, given her national profile. As it turns out, Talarico not only had the advantage of an actual statewide campaign infrastructure and the advantage of knowing when to shut his mouth, he had the advantage of establishment support, too.
A stunt involving outgoing CBS host Stephen Colbert blaming the Federal Communications Commission’s equal time rule for not having an interview with Talarico on air — while posting it to YouTube — created a positive buzz around Talarico, along with the false impression that President Donald Trump was somehow trying to quash his campaign. Crockett’s poll numbers began slipping, although she was still in the lead.
However, it didn’t help that she kept on serving up gems like this:
🚨 JUST IN: Rep. Jasmine Crockett is being ruthlessly mocked for saying — “If I go to sleep, democracy could die!”
Is she serious? 🤡🤡
Texas must REJECT this low-IQ BS in the Senate election!pic.twitter.com/ldSTb5Awlr
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) February 15, 2026
It’s not that Talarico is sane. He’s not. It’s that he passes as sane, at least in comparison to Jasmine Crockett. And suddenly, sanity is a prerequisite for a candidate to get nominated.
Mind you, conservatives can’t be blamed for preferring being able to dunk on Crockett as a senatorial nominee when November comes. However, being able to point to Tuesday night’s results as evidence that we’ve reached peak woke is a decent enough consolation prize — and bad news for Democrats elsewhere.
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