Leading Democrats Eye Up 2028

Dipping toes or planting flags?

While the 2026 midterms remain the focus of congressional leaders, a brewing cauldron of hints and clues is coming to the boil regarding who will lead the Democratic Party into the 2028 presidential election.

For Republicans, the current standard bearer is Vice President JD Vance, who – assuming President Trump continues to support his wingman – appears to have the backing of both the GOP-aligned electorate and a significant number of elected leaders across the country. But for Democrats, the question goes far beyond who may be able to launch a defense, and slips into the realm of which candidate is capable of remaking a party that has seen its support drop to historical lows.

Kamala’s Echo Chamber

“I’m not done,” declared former vice president Kamala Harris this Sunday during a BBC interview. Promoting her book, “107 Days,” the 2024 presidential candidate dropped the biggest hint yet that she is considering another bite at the apple. “I have lived my entire career a life of service, and it’s in my bones … There are many ways to serve. I have not decided yet what I will do in the future beyond what I am doing right now,” she said, but when pressed, said that she would “possibly” make the play.

But just how popular a choice would she be? After all, she lost not only the popular vote but also all seven swing states. And yet, numbers do not seem to intrude on Harris’s own personal view of reality. When the BBC host pointed out that she’s not exactly popular with the voters, Harris replied:

“I think there are all kinds of polls that will tell you a variety of things… I never listen to polls. If I had listened to polls, I never would have run for my first office or my second office, and I certainly wouldn’t be sitting here in this interview.”

If VP Harris had cultivated a group of trusted advisors during her time in office, perhaps they would have told her that although polls are not predictions, they’re not nothing. But who else has such a profile?

Newsom Tacitly Enters the Ring

Speaking to CBS yesterday morning, October 26, California Governor Gavin Newsom dropped his biggest hint to date that he’s looking for work after his current term in office expires. Asked whether he was plotting a 2028 campaign, he said, “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise… I’d just be lying. And I’m not – I can’t do that.” This is definitely forward movement from another CBS interview earlier in the year, where he bluntly responded, “I don’t know.”

Adding further fuel to the speculation fire, he said:

“Who the hell knows? I’m looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and who meets that moment. And that’s the question for the American people.”

As sure a thing as death and taxes, a seasoned politico stating that he is waiting to see if anyone takes up the crown is as close an affirmative as we are likely to get this far out.

2028 Markets Get Busy

So far out from the Democratic Party presidential primary, polling is extremely light on the ground, but that doesn’t stop the betting markets from making early plays. Newsom is the current favorite at 7/4 (a 36% probability of winning the nomination), followed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on 11/2 (15.4% chance of victory).

Way down on the list is former VP Harris, who scores an outsider chance of 20/1 – that’s a probability of just 4.8%. In between her unenviable position and AOC are an array of characters that were all big names during the Biden era, like Pete Buttigieg, and a host of Democrat governors, including Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Maryland’s Wes Moore, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois’ JB Pritzker.

Each of these potential contenders has high name recognition beyond their own state borders and the added advantage of not having lost a presidential election. But for Newsom and Harris, there’s also the California question.

Don’t California My [Insert State Here]

It’s no secret that the Golden State is considered a world apart from much of America. Certainly, it’s a major economy and the nation’s most populous state, but it is also seen as a bastion of progressive thought and politics that is barely managing to remain sane.

Open-air drug markets, rampant homelessness, and crime are the perceived hallmarks of California. And while these issues are largely confined to the major cities, for many, it’s an unappetizing recipe for the rest of the country. Businesses are reincorporating in friendlier climes, and the mass exodus of folks in general suggests that all is not quite as golden as the shining veneer proclaims. And this begs the question: How can a California candidate promise the American electorate that the values and policies that have brought about the decline in their home state will not take root in the rest of the country?