10It’s a common cultural trope that half of marriages end in divorce. But that’s not true anymore. Instead, marriages are becoming more stable.
A new analysis from the Institute for Family Studies revealed that “we’ve been witnessing an increase in marital stability since the end of the 1970s,” when divorce became much more common.
As it turns out, marriages so far this decade show the most stability out of any other decade in modern history except for the 1950s, according to data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation.
Just 15% of marriages started between 2010 and 2012 ended in divorce within their first 10 years.
“If later-year divorce rates look more like the 1960s, then we should see about 40% of these marriages end in divorce,” the Institute for Family Studies said. “But if marriages trend toward further stability, then we see under 40% of first marriages ending in divorce.”
That’s still far too high. But it’s better than the recent incredibly dismal conditions surrounding marriage and divorce.
There are a few reasons as to why this is the case.
“Newer marriages have already shown higher stability, and this may be because newer marriages are more selective,” the Institute for Family Studies said. “In the 1980s, 80% of adults married by the age of 30. Between 2000 and 2012, just 64% of adults had married by then. The composition of the married population has changed.”
In other words, a smaller share of people are getting married, and when they do get married, they are usually tying the knot at an older age.
Is traditional marriage a valuable institution?
It’s not set in stone yet, but this could create a materially lower divorce rate for the present cohort of marriages.
“Right now, our best estimate is that about 40% of today’s first marriages will end in divorce. But only time will tell,” the report added.
The analysis did not talk about other reasons as to why marriages may be more stable, such as higher rates of cohabitation without marriage and other negative trends.
But in any case, marriage is the bedrock of our civilization, as with any other civilization that wants to actually last.
The rearing of children in familial units built on love, service, and self-sacrifice is necessary for societal stability.
Christian marriage especially is needed to preserve the culture from moral rot, and to serve as a first school of virtue for children before they are expected to function as productive citizens.
With more people learning the hard way in our culture that this is the case, the tide may finally be turning.
If it doesn’t turn, then we will not have any sort of a culture left to preserve.
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