New York, New Look? Elise Stefanik vs Kathy Hochul in 2026

‘New York will rise, like we always do,’ Republican gubernatorial hopeful’s campaign video predicts.

Watch out, Kathy Hochul; there’s a new challenger in the race for New York governor. It didn’t come out of the blue – or, perhaps, out of the red – but in a November 7 exclusive, the New York Post revealed that Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who currently represents the Empire State’s 21st congressional district, has launched a bid to challenge the incumbent Democrat governor in 2026. Stefanik, who has served in the US House of Representatives since 2015, came out swinging against Hochul. The election of Zohran Mamdani, a socialist and Islamist, as the next mayor of New York City probably galvanized the Republicans to kick off a campaign many assumed had already been in the works.

In the early hours of November 7, Stefanik posted a two-and-a-half-minute video montage – focused on attacking Hochul’s governorship – accompanied by a statement, which began: “Kathy Hochul is the Worst Governor in America.” The statement continued:

“Under her failed leadership, New York is the most unaffordable state in the nation with the highest taxes, highest energy, utilities, rent, and grocery bills. When New Yorkers were looking for leadership from our Governor, she bent the knee to the raging Defund the Police, Tax Hiking Communist causing catastrophe for New York families.”

An official for the governor’s re-election campaign wrote in response: “Apparently, screwing over New Yorkers in Congress wasn’t enough – now she’s trying to bring Trump’s chaos and skyrocketing costs to our state.”

A Proxy Battle for New York

This is apparently shaping up to be a guilty-by-association fight, with the Hochul campaign tying Stefanik to Trump, while the Republican hopeful uses the governor’s support for Mamdani against her. The Stefanik campaign video claimed Hochul “cozied up to a defund the police, tax-hiking antisemitic communist,” to a backdrop of images of Mamdani, including one video clip in which the mayor-elect, speaking to a Muslim audience while masking his face, is saying, “We came here to remake this state in the image of our people.”

The election is a year away, and trying to read into poll numbers is a pointless task at this stage. In an article published Friday, November 7, CBS News cited a Sienna College survey from September, which had Hochul leading Stefanik in a hypothetical matchup by a crushing 52% – 27%. A Manhattan Institute poll published on October 28, however, has Stefanik at 43% and Hochul at 42%, with 9% of respondents choosing “someone else” and 7% not sure.

Democrat pollsters dismissed the Manhattan Institute poll, however, with one saying, “I don’t know how or where they screwed this up, but they screwed this up and the data isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.”

The Ties That Bind

It is certainly possible that Mamdani’s ascendance to the leadership of America’s most populous city may send shockwaves through the rest of the state, with a governor who supports such a radical. New Yorkers beyond the Big Apple could imagine that this does not bode well for the future. But Stefanik has a hill to climb, since New York, like California, seems to have transitioned from deep blue to midnight blue.

This perhaps reflects the widening political divide across the whole country that has led to the ongoing redistricting war, in which red states are erasing Democrat districts, while those blue states that have not already done so are trying to eliminate as many of their remaining Republican districts as they can.

It seems New York, the state, has now become something of a microcosm of the battle for the ideological soul of America. While Kathy Hocul will not be easy to unseat, she is now inexorably tied to what Mamdani does as chief executive of the jewel in the Empire State. Elise Stefanik, meanwhile, does have the backing of one famous New York native, President Donald J. Trump. That could be a blessing for the youngest woman ever elected to Congress – or a curse.