Every few years the two nuclear powers test the limits.
Blood feuds are not uncommon. In modern times, we’ve witnessed violence between Shia and Sunni Muslims, persistent clashes between Turks and the Kurds, and the Hutu massacre of the Tutsi minority in Rwanda, to name just a few. However, when a blood feud between two nations with nuclear weapons breaks into open conflict, as with Pakistan and India recently, other countries tend to notice. So, it was with the latest dust-up between the two feuding neighbors until a truce in the fighting was put in place on May 10.
Nuclear Armed India and Pakistan Reignite Regional Tensions
Over the years, India has been the target of conflict with the nations on its borders. The most recent aggression between India and Pakistan started this time when, on April 22, The Resistance Front (TRF) with links to Lashkar-e-Taiba claimed responsibility initially for a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled Kashmir Baisaran Valley. At about 3 p.m. local time, four or five terrorists, some in army uniforms, began shooting indiscriminately with AK-47s and M4 carbines. They killed 27 tourists and wounded 20 more. Reports from the scene described the terrorists shooting at point-blank range, targeting Hindu tourists mainly.
On April 26, the TRF retracted its claim of responsibility. There is reason to believe elements in the Pakistani government had a hand in the attack. Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) agency has been accused of supporting terrorist activities. “ISI has provided covert but well-documented support to terrorist groups active in Kashmir, including the al-Qaeda affiliate Jaish-e-Mohammed,” the Council on Foreign Relations reported.
Regardless of what terrorist group was responsible, India identified Pakistan as culpable. “Two weeks after a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, India has launched a series of strikes on sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir,” Real Clear World reported. India’s retaliation began with airstrikes on May 7 against Pakistani targets during an air campaign called “Operation Sindoor.” Time magazine described the escalating conflict:
“The long-simmering tensions between India and Pakistan are on the cusp of boiling over. India launched a series of missiles into Pakistan-controlled territory after midnight local time, early Wednesday, May 7, killing at least 31 people and injuring dozens of others, according to Pakistani officials. It’s the most extensive missile strike by India on Pakistan during official peacetime, though Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called it an ‘act of war’ and warned of a ‘befitting reply.’”
To understand the history of the antagonism between Pakistan and India, it is necessary to look at how Pakistan became a country. Nearly eight decades ago, in 1947, the British relinquished their colonial hold over India and partitioned it into the predominantly Hindu India and the Muslim-majority Pakistan. The division displaced an estimated 14 million people, moving to the areas of predominant religious preference. Establishing the separate nations resulted in intense violence, with a broad estimate of between 200,000 and 2 million casualties. Throughout the years, the primary sticking point for hostilities has been the disputed region of Kashmir. Both Pakistan and India claim the area to be part of their respective countries.
Over the years, Kashmir has been divided into Pakistan-managed Northern Kashmir and India-controlled Southern Kashmir. Cross-border violence has been frequent. “This time around, the Indian government issued civil defense warnings before the strikes, ordering states and provinces to conduct mock drills, implement emergency blackout measures, and operationalize air raid warnings,” according to a Council on Foreign Relations report. These precautions portend India’s serious intentions to engage in open combat. On the other hand, “An optimistic reading of the situation could be that this has all happened before: The two rivals fought full-scale wars in 1947-48, 1965, and 1971 and have engaged in several major skirmishes since the 1990s, when they declared themselves as nuclear powers,” Foreign Policy Magazine observed.
Outside Mediation Helps Bring About a Ceasefire
However, when two nuclear powers become embroiled in a conflict escalating daily, engaging other nations to reduce the building tensions may be helpful. Initially, the US appeared to want a hands-off approach, believing that while emotions were simmering between India and Pakistan, any intervention on the part of the US might make things worse. Nonetheless, reports confirmed that US Vice President JD Vance and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio were involved heavily in mediating the current ceasefire. In an X-posting, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif acknowledged: “We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region. Pakistan appreciates the United States for facilitating this outcome, which we have accepted in the interest of regional peace and stability.”
Until all the participants on both sides get the memo, ceasefire violations should be expected. As the Associated Press reported, “multiple explosions were heard in two big cities of Indian-controlled Kashmir Saturday, hours after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire deal following the US-led talks to end the most serious military confrontation between the nuclear-armed rivals in decades.” However, any lull in fighting between nations with nuclear weapons at the ready is a worthy effort. Behind-the-scenes talks mediated by the US demonstrate a willingness on the part of the Trump administration to be an active diplomatic force to bring an end to hostilities. Assertions that the Trump national security team is isolationist do not ring true.
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