Iranians have been protesting against the regime for months, even after the government reportedly killed 30,000 demonstrators in response.
“With the security forces out of their way or actively helping them, protesters could seize state television, radio, and other communications platforms and broadcast the end of the Islamic Republic,” Taleblu explained. He acknowledged critics’ concerns that another “strongman” leader would just take over, but insisted such an outcome was avoidable:
“Newly empowered protesters could use their new platforms to call for the country’s large civilian bureaucracy to keep working in order to maintain government functions. They might also bring in Iran’s exiled opposition leaders, who have been planning for and could help lead a transition.
“The real source of destabilization in and around Iran, after all, is not the prospect of regime change. It is the Islamic Republic itself.”
A Major Obstacle
President Trump confirmed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in Saturday’s attack. Will it be enough to topple the government? According to Taleblu, not likely:
“The Islamic Republic may have once been a sultanistic state built on the personal cult of its founding supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. But over the last three decades, Khamenei (Khomeini’s successor) has institutionalized his rule and his regime both by empowering loyalists throughout a considerably larger state bureaucracy and by supporting competing power centers. As a result, the Islamic Republic looks more like a series of pillars than it does a pyramid, with a powerful deep state made up of security officials with their own vested interests in maintaining the regime.”
Taleblu explained that Khamenei’s system is made up of partners rather than superiors and subordinates, meaning remaining officials would likely “close ranks” in the event of Khamenei’s death to “keep the system running and try to seek revenge.”
Iran’s foreign minister called regime change in the Islamic Republic “mission impossible.” “You cannot do regime change while millions of people are supporting the so-called regime,” Abbas Araghchi told NBC News just hours after the first US-Israel joint strikes. But do the Iranian people support the regime? Not according to the data. The Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran, a Netherlands-based institute, found most Iranians reject the Islamic Republic and support regime change. The organization polled over 77,000 participants inside Iran, and just 20% said they’d prefer to keep the Islamic Republic in place.
Trump is bad news for that 20%, because he has shown no signs of slowing down despite the potentially bumpy road ahead, calling Khamenei’s death “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country.”
“We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “As I said last night, ‘Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!’ Hopefully, the IRGC and Police will peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and work together as a unit to bring back the Country to the Greatness it deserves.”
