Gas prices are high, the president is embroiled in a foreign war, and congressional Republicans seem stymied in passing legislation that would address one of the few 80/20 issues Americans can get behind. This is the backdrop amid which the GOP is hoping to cling to power in advance of the 2026 midterm elections this November. One might assume a slam dunk for Democratic Party hopefuls. But as is often the case, defeat can be snatched from the jaws of victory.
Midterm Motivation
Motivating voters to turn up will be the key to winning control of either the House, the Senate, or even both chambers. Running on a platform of “orange man bad” has been proven to be an ineffective strategy. Yes, the animus against President Donald Trump spreads far and wide, and yet relying on anger and angst failed to stop 45 becoming 47 in a landslide victory in 2024. So where do Democrats turn?
The key messaging so far this nascent election season has been the “cost of living crisis.” After all, such a campaign slogan has been rolled out successfully across the pond in the UK to oust the Tories after 14 years of rule. But the divide between the British version and the US effort is far bigger than the same message delivered in a different accent.
The party out of power in the UK is truly a sorry thing. With a majority, the in-party can pretty much do what it likes (barring internal rebellion), and politicos can sit on the sidelines, casting verbal barrages to their hearts’ content. But in America, many of those running for election or re-election are already wielding influence and making decisions – and it is here that the proverbial rubber meets the road.
The Record Speaks for Itself
If the key plank of Democrats’ midterm hopes rests on affordability, surely some of the places where the party is already in control would be making efforts to rein in the wild horses of profligate spending? Let’s examine a couple of rising stars who are elevated as the future faces of the party.
In New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani rode a wave of dissatisfaction to become the first Democratic Socialist leader of the Big Apple. He promised affordability and accountability. Just three months into his rule, and healthier wallets are apparently no longer a priority.
The mayor is getting behind an estate tax that would no longer just hit those with sizable assets. Passing on an estate comes with a tax-free allowance of $7.35 million, but under the plan backed by Mamdani, this would be reduced to just $750,000 – meaning even those with a midsize home may be better of liquidating rather than leaving it for the children to inherit (not to mention that the actual tax itself would rise from 16% to a whopping 50%). Add in his proposal to freeze rents on two million homes (thereby grinding new home production to a halt), his proposed tax hikes on the “wealthy” and corporations, and what we see is a progressive dragnet capturing not just rich Americans, but even the middle class.
And city-run grocery stores are on the back burner, too. But it’s not just NYC derailing the affordability narrative.
Virginia Blues
Newly ensconced Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger also coasted to power on a message of affordability. Just over two months in office, and the fresh taxes are coming in hot and heavy.
A proposed piñata of more than 50 taxes is gaining ground in The Old Dominion. On the list are an increase in income tax to 10%, a nearly 4% increase on investment income, and this is before we even get to the pernicious taxation of those going about their everyday lives. Also on “offer” to residents are taxes on repairs, gym memberships, dog grooming, ride shares, and dry-cleaning. To argue that this is making the “rich pay their fair share” will be a hard sell at best.
Remember affordability? What happened to affordability?
Narrative Overload
When one pins an entire slate of elections on the notion of affordability, you have to actually make an effort in that direction. The voters across the nation who elevated politicians to the top jobs in off-year ballots expected at least some relief in their paychecks. That relief will be coming, but notably thanks to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which not a single Democrat actually voted for.
Polling from America’s New Majority Project revealed that 77% of Americans oppose tax increases for the middle class. Candidates in the upcoming midterms may talk tough on affordability and “taxing the rich,” but if past truly is prologue, and future performance is best indicated by past performance, the “cost of living crisis” is about to get a whole lot worse.
