On June 19, 1944, Vice Admiral Jisaburo̅ Ozawa took command of a powerful Japanese fleet to protect the Japanese-held Marianas Islands. A massive American task force of 15 carriers and several dozen support ships was bearing down on Saipan, the largest island in the archipelago, looking to capture it and use it as a base to attack the Japanese homeland.
Although outnumbered 3-1, Ozawa was ordered to stop the Americans at all costs. He had more than 400 planes in his task force, and five of Japan’s top-of-the-line carriers.
But after three years of naval warfare, Japan had lost almost all of its experienced fighter pilots. That proved to be the decisive edge in the battle that officially became known as the Battle of the Philippine Sea. After one American pilot dove into a formation of these inexperienced Japanese pilots, shooting down six Yokosuka D4Y “Judy” dive bombers in eight minutes, expending 360 rounds of ammunition, members of the USS Lexington flight crews began to refer to the battle as “The Great Marianas Turkey Shoot.”
For good reason. The Japanese navy lost 80% of its bombers and fighters and was never able to mount offensive operations for the rest of the war.
American and Israeli forces are probably getting a similar feeling about bombing the Iranian leadership. The unprecedented success of the decapitation strikes has drained the ambition from high-ranking mullahs who might have been considered for the position of “Supreme Leader.”
How do we know this? Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late, barely lamented Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is being seriously considered as a successor to his father. Khamenei the Younger is a “mid-ranking cleric,” according to the Jerusalem Post.
This is significant because the Assembly of Experts is charged with choosing the Supreme Leader from among the top echelon of imams. Supposedly, only the smartest, the holiest, the wisest, and most experienced candidates are considered. The facts are a little more prosaic. The crown will go to whoever can garner the most support from the security apparatus, including the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij, and auxiliary forces, such as the police.
It’s further proof that the “Great Tehran Turkey Shoot” targeting the civilian and military leadership was successful beyond any expectations. If Mojtaba is the best they have left, the regime is in worse shape than we thought.
According to intelligence and military sources, approximately 40 high-ranking officials were killed in last weekend’s strikes. This followed a previous wave of escalations in June 2025 during the “Twelve-Day War,” which also saw dozens of senior commanders killed.
In effect, Mojtaba may be one of the last men standing. What would it mean if he were chosen?
Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran and Shia Islam at Johns Hopkins University, told the New York Times, “He was slated to become the successor for a long time, but for the past two years, it seemed to have dropped off from the radar. If he is elected, it suggests it is a much more hard-line Revolutionary Guard side of the regime that is now in charge.”
Mojtaba’s ace in the hole is his close relationship with the top leadership of the Revolutionary Guards. But since most of the leaders have been killed, you have to wonder just how solid his power base is at this point.
“Mojtaba is the wisest pick right now because he is intimately familiar with running and coordinating security and military apparatuses,” said Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Tehran. “He was in charge of this already.”
If the younger Khamenei is chosen Supreme Leader, there will be a backlash, even from regime supporters. One of the pillars of the Islamic revolution was ending the idea of hereditary leadership. Naming the dead Supreme Leader’s son would further erode the legitimacy of the regime in the eyes of the elites.
Supporters of the government would see him as a continuation of a ruler whom they view as martyred and will back him swiftly, Mr. Rahmati said. But government opponents, too, will see him as a continuation of the regime, which in recent months has killed at least 7,000, a number that may well grow, rights groups say.
Other candidates who have emerged as finalists are Alireza Arafi, a cleric and jurist who is part of the three-person transition council of leadership named after Ayatollah Khamenei was killed, and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic revolution’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Both Mr. Arafi and Mr. Khomeini are viewed as moderates, with the latter being close to the sidelined reformist political faction in Iran.
Donald Trump was asked about the “worst-case scenario” for the succession. “I guess the worst case would be we do this and somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person. Right, that could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”
If we continue the “Great Tehran Turkey Shoot,” the Iranians will run out of hard-liners, soft-liners, moderates, and any warm body that seeks to occupy the leader’s seat.
Related: The Call That Altered the History of the Middle East
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