The old Cherokee fable about each individual facing the internal struggle of two wolves – a light versus dark tale of human nature – appears ready to play out in real time with the upcoming midterm elections. While the party on the ballot may be Republican or Democrat, voters in this election cycle face by a choice: practicality or ideology. With Americans polarized over not just party affiliation, but the parties themselves riven by opposing factions, it appears the 2026 midterm elections may present a tangled web of tactical voting designed to get the “least worst” candidates into power. National polling by NBC has exposed a divide between those who plan to vote with their heart versus those who are hoping to block what they see as the greater of two evils.
A Midterm Measure
The survey found that Republican voters were more intent on voting for a candidate that best matched their ideological viewpoint, but for Democrats, choosing a person who had the best chance of defeating the GOP candidate played a far more significant role.
Just 27% of GOP-affiliated voters stated that their pick would be based on who has “the best chance to beat the other party in November.” For Democrat voters, this number rises to 42%. Does this data reinforce the left-leaning narrative that those on the right are hapless ideologues and those on the left are more grounded? A look at the last few years shows something quite different. Rather, it seems the party whose candidates are out of power at any given moment is the one that will be more likely to vote tactically, disregarding ideals and taking a more pragmatic approach designed to avoid the election of the least desired candidate.
In June 2023, 39% GOP primary voters indicated that their preferred candidate was someone who could beat then-President Joe Biden, even if that person was not the ideal choice; 12 points higher than today. And 56% opted for someone who aligned more closely with their own views. A 2020 poll showed that Democrats followed the same pattern during the presidential election, when they hoped to defeat the incumbent Trump.
The fact that so many midterm voters in both camps respond that they are essentially ideologically opposed to “the other side” should sound warning bells to the two parties.
Two Wolves, One Party
Enhancing this effect could be the factional divides within parties themselves, particularly the internecine warfare currently raging within the Democrat Party. America is not divided broadly into two parties, but rather four camps. For the right, there’s MAGA versus the more conventional brand of the GOP. For the left, there’s the traditional Democrats against the progressives. Each voter is being asked to make a choice to not only pick a candidate who they feel best represents them, but also to fend off congressional incursions from those who they may see as ideological opposites.
Take the recent Democratic Party primary in Texas. US Representative Jasmine Crockett was trounced by state Rep. James Talarico by more than seven points. With her significant name recognition and national platform, this should have been a pro forma exercise for Crockett, and yet, primary voters in the Lone Star State recognized something she herself couldn’t: She was essentially unelectable in a statewide race.
Whether it was calling wheelchair bound Governor Greg Abbott “hot wheels,” or embarrassing herself by calling out a colleague for taking donations from Jeffrey Epstein – without verifying it was the same Epstein – she had become a distraction to serious politics. Democrat voters chose to back the candidate who would not be such a gift to the GOP – even though many may have been ideologically aligned with Crockett’s worldview.
While progressives are on the rise across the nation, their electoral victories are largely limited to left-leaning bastions such as New York City or California, suggesting that party survival is – for now – the driving force.
For Republicans, President Donald Trump has become the main focal point. His endorsements are pivotal in each race (a near 100% success rate in the Texas primaries), and a well-timed social media post can either make or break a career. He has been the big beast of the party for the last ten years and has become the final arbiter of MAGA. With Trump now the dominant voice within the GOP, the old guard is essentially vanquished – at least until the 2028 presidential election – making tactical voting less important. The polling distinction (just 27% opting for the more tactical vote) indicates perhaps that the choice between party and personal belief is more closely aligned. After all, according to CNN’s data guru Harry Enten, fully 86% of GOP voters approve of Trump’s performance. By comparison, the NBC poll puts party support among Democrats at just 62%.
Hungry Like a Wolf
The mass disaffection with politics in general is pushing an all-time high, and it seems somewhat likely that this move to vote for practicality over principle is at least in part a driving factor. However, there is a danger in such a willingness to disregard one’s ideals – particularly if the end result is unsatisfactory. If one votes not for what one actually wants, but rather for a politically adjacent subset, neither wolf is fed or happy. And the November midterms might just become a feeding frenzy for some very hungry predators.
