Texas and California Turn the Gerrymandering War Hot

It’s red vs blue in the nationwide redistricting fight – and it doesn’t look good for the left.

It’s official: The gerrymandering war between Democrats and Republicans has turned hot. The Texas House approved the Lone Star State’s new congressional maps on Tuesday, August 21, and the California legislature did the same for their redistricting scheme. The Golden State’s governor managed to scrawl the first signature, but his Texan counterpart will almost certainly put pen to parchment within days.

As this political inferno ignites, it’s important to remember that it isn’t just Gavin Newsom against Gregg Abbott. It isn’t, in fact, California vs Texas; it’s Democrats vs Republicans, and these two aren’t the only ones likely to get involved. Newsom fired the initial salvo by being the first governor to sign – but can he stand against his Republican foes, or will any flipped seats be swept away by the tide?

Golden State Gerrymandering

The California State Assembly approved Governor Newsom’s gerrymandering plan 57-20 on Thursday afternoon, followed by the Senate 30-8. The governor quickly signed the bill, and now the state is committed – to voting on it again, at least.

See, California state law requires an independent committee to handle redistricting – and that can only be changed by a popular vote on the issue as a ballot item. Thursday’s vote wasn’t on redistricting itself, but on calling a special election in November to let the people weigh in on it.

And that’s precisely what Gavin Newsom has set in motion. Voters will decide whether to adopt his new maps in a November 4 special election. The issue will be known as Prop 50 – named for the 50 United States, reportedly. If the people approve the plan, and if it works as Newsom hopes, five GOP-held seats in the US House will flip to Democratic Party control in 2026. But would that give Democrats control of Congress? Not likely – not alone, anyway. That’s where Texas – and the other redistricting red states – come in.

Red State Redistricting

The Texas House of Representatives also met on Wednesday. By an 88-52 vote, the Texas House backed new congressional maps that could flip five Lone Star State seats currently held by Democrats to the GOP in next year’s election.

Unlike California, the Texas legislature was voting on the actual maps. Once Governor Abbott signs the bill, it’s official.

While Gavin Newsom’s plan may not guarantee California gets to cancel out Texas’ gift to the GOP in the midterms, it does essentially guarantee that other states will get involved – starting, it seems, with Missouri.

“The Great State of Missouri is now IN,” President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday. “I’m not surprised. It is a great State with fabulous people. I won it, all 3 times, in a landslide. We’re going to win the Midterms in Missouri again, bigger and better than ever before!”

Governor Mike Kehoe hasn’t yet called his state’s legislature into special session to make it happen – but he did indicate, after the president’s post, that it’s coming. Missouri has eight congressional districts – two held by Democrats and the other six by Republicans. One proposed plan would carve up the 5th District, which is currently represented by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, a Democrat. In 2022, the GOP considered (but ultimately passed on) splitting Kansas City voters into neighboring rural districts, which would have almost certainly resulted in a 7-1 Republican majority rather than the existing 6-2.

Florida currently has eight out of 28 districts under Democratic control, and Governor Ron DeSantis has suggested they may be next on the redistricting chopping block. Indiana Republicans are also reportedly supportive of Trump’s mid-decade redistricting push and may be considering reshaping their two blue districts.

A Numbers Game Democrats Just Won’t Win

Democrat-controlled Illinois and New York both have threatened to get in the game, but they can’t contribute much. Illinois has just three Republicans to target, and New York is held up by state law. Democrats have introduced a new bill to allow the legislature to redistrict, but it would have to pass an even harder constitutional amendment process, and 2028 is the earliest it would be possible – far too late for any pre-midterm gerrymandering.

And there just aren’t any other states that can get involved, really. Blue states are already too heavily gerrymandered to have any seats to flip. Despite Republicans representing between one-third and one-half of the popular vote, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Hawaii have a combined total of zero GOP representatives. Oregon and Maryland each only have one, Washington has just two, and New Jersey has three.

Sure, there are red states with 100% partisan control of their congressional delegations – but when it all shakes out, Democrats just don’t have as many seats that can be flipped by gerrymandering as the GOP. And that’s what makes this a war they likely cannot win.