The 2025 Elections – 5 Days to Go

All the latest polls, data, and news.

With just five days to go before a small slice of the American electorate casts ballots, what do the latest polls say? And what news – if any – can change what seems like a tranche of inevitable outcomes?

Virginia Slim Chances

In the race to win Old Dominion’s gubernatorial contest, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is maintaining a solid 7.6% polling average lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. In fact, Spanberger held a seven-point lead all the way back in August, and despite rare fluctuations, has remained steady. You can see the poll breakdown at Liberty Nation News’ Public Square tool.

However, should we cast back to the 2021 contest between Glenn Youngkin (R) and Terry McAuliffe (D), polling right through to late October had the Democratic contender with a comfortable but close two-point advantage. Then it flipped. Ultimately, Youngkin ended blue hopes by 2%.

And yet, a seven-point lead is very different from two points, and Earle-Sears has a much steeper mountain to climb. But digging deeper into the various surveys may be giving the Republican hopeful a reason to keep campaigning. If we parse out polls that include fewer than 1,000 people, Spanberger’s average over the last month falls to just 4%. It’s still not that close, but it’s certainly not a sure thing.

How to Lose Elections and Alienate People

Presenting a masterclass in how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is the Democratic candidate for Virginia’s attorney general position, Jay Jones. After text messages were leaked of him wishing death on a political opponent’s children, his polling numbers have taken a major tumble. As Liberty Nation News’ Executive Editor Leesa K. Donner noted:

“In less than a month, Jones went from an average of 5.25% ahead of Miyares to an average of 3.3% behind. That’s a precipitous fall in popularity in such a short time.

“In fact, all the polls since Jones’ horrific texts became public show him sinking like a rock. A flurry of surveys was conducted last week, and every single one – save The Washington Post poll, which shows the two candidates in a tie – had the GOP candidate beating Jones by between 1 and 7 points.”

In terms of early voting, Spanberger’s close association with Jones has not made much – if any – of a dent. But come polling day, anything can happen.

New Jersey “Sure” Thing?

Republican Jack Ciattarelli is a long shot to win the gubernatorial race in New Jersey against Democrat Mikie Sherrill. Current polling has the GOP hopeful trailing by roughly three and a half points. Back in 2021, Ciattarelli came within three points of beating now Governor Phil Murphy – a difference of just 90,000 votes.

Millions of dollars have been bet on this race, and Sherrill remains the firm favorite with a 78% chance of victory. Early voting has, naturally, favored the Democratic Party candidate, but again, in a race this close, ballots cast in-person on the day of voting can make a big difference.

Mamdanimentum

Zohran Mamdani is currently the closest you can get to a sure thing in politics. While the gap in recent polls has closed between him and now-independent candidate former Governor Andrew Cuomo, the self-proclaimed socialist still maintains an average lead of more than 15 points.

With New York City Mayor Eric Adams withdrawing from the contest, the surveys have swung a little toward Cuomo – several polls gave Mamdani just a 10-point lead. Republican Curtis Sliwa remains remarkably sticky, hanging around 15%, but that doesn’t mean that if Sliwa pulled out, all his support would automatically go to Cuomo.

Barring a major scandal in the last few days (and even that might not be enough to derail this particular train), next week will see Mamdani elected as head of the Big Apple.

Anything Goes

While the outcomes of each race seem almost certain for now – especially with a huge chunk of early votes already cast – everything depends on November 4 and who turns up to the polling stations. Liberty Nation News will track everything that happens and will keep you informed of the latest news and any fresh data.