It barely cleared the House. Why would the Senate be any different?
After an hours-long all-nighter, the House GOP passed Trump’s big, beautiful bill without even a whiff of support from the Democratic Party. The version passed by the House is something of a MAGA wish list with a little something for everyone. But now it faces the Senate. The road to reconciliation has been long and bumpy – and the rough ride is far from over.
The Latest Big, Beautiful Bill
What’s in the so-called big, beautiful bill the House passed? First and foremost, this version renews the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, though different provisions are renewed to varying degrees. For example: The big one – lower tax rates for all but two income brackets – was made permanent. Several business-related tax savings were extended to 2028 or 2030. Some savings and credits were prolonged permanently, but not at the same rate as the 2017 law. Take the child tax credit. It’s increased to $2,500 from $1,000 – which is what it will fall back to at the end of this year if this bill doesn’t pass the Senate – but the $2,500 rate is only extended through 2028. The permanent credit after that is $2,000. So, you see, the answer to the question of whether it makes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent is: Kind of – but it’s complicated.
State and Local Tax deductions, which were capped at $10,000 by the 2017 bill, would be raised to $40,000 for those making less than $500,000 a year. That’s quite the boon for blue-state Republicans, who were absolutely necessary for passage through the House.
Another big win for the president, should this bill hit his desk, is that it eliminates taxes on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime. And for the Second Amendment advocates, it eliminates the tax on transferring silencers.
The Rocky Road to Reconciliation
After weeks of division culminating in a marathon session beginning around 1 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday and lasting until just before 7 a.m. Thursday, the House GOP finally managed to pass a version of what many call President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” The issue, of course, is that the bigger the bill – beautiful or otherwise – the harder it is to achieve consensus. There are 220 Republicans voting in the House and 53 in the Senate. That’s 273 people from across the country, and nearly all of them have to agree on everything to pass much of anything.
After many hours of debates, the House Rules Committee voted 8-4 to send the bill to the House floor. The full chamber began voting around 6:30 a.m. Thursday morning and wrapped up at 6:54. The omnibus package passed the House 215-214, a squeaker of a win with two Republican nays, a “present,” and two not voting. Across the aisle, all 212 Democrats voted against it – as expected.
Since it’s a reconciliation bill, there’s no filibuster rule. This legislation could pass the Senate with as few votes as a 50-50 tie with Vice President JD Vance as the tiebreaker – meaning Republicans could lose as many as three votes and still manage. Remember, a squeaker of a win is still a win. Once it’s law, it won’t matter how many people voted for it.
But therein lies the problem: Getting even 50 of the 53 Republican votes is far from guaranteed. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has already said he’s a no, so count him out. Josh Hawley of Missouri doesn’t like the changes to Medicaid, and he’s on the record as being a NO on this House bill in its current form. Other GOP senators who are likely to balk over this issue are Jerry Moran of Kansas, Maine’s Susan Collins, Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, Ted Budd of North Carolina, and Missouri’s Eric Schmitt, among others who consider themselves moderates. As well, Murkowski and Collins may take issue with the defunding of Planned Parenthood, given their past support for so-called pro-choice legislation.
Finally, the very rules of the Senate itself may present a problem. Anything passed in a reconciliation bill is supposed to be paid for in the first decade after its passage, and there’s some question as to whether the permanent extension of some of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act counts as exempt existing law. Each section of the bill will also be subject to the Byrd Rule, which prevents reconciliation bills from being used as vehicles for policy measures unrelated to the budget. Ultimately, it falls to Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough to determine compliance. She has yet to weigh in, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said back in January that he would oppose any attempt to overrule her.
So will the Senate pass some form of a “big, beautiful bill”? Probably – but likely not without some significant changes. And changes mean continued voting until both chambers of Congress agree on the same version. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) says he wants to see the big, beautiful bill on Trump’s desk by Independence Day. Could it happen? Sure – but don’t hold your breath.
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