The Deep Blue Polling Nightmare

A painting yourself into a corner exercise.

It’s no secret that the Fourth Estate has been awash with negative stories regarding the presidency of Donald J. Trump. Indeed, one might call it the new normal. Yet, despite this tsunami of negative press, 47’s polling approval remains resilient. Not so for the Democratic Party, whose raison d’etre appears to be hovering somewhere between febrile dreams of a socialist utopia and a desperate bid for relevance.

Recent surveys offer a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, approval for congressional Democrats is at an all-time low, but on the other, stated enthusiasm for voting in next year’s midterms is relatively high. How to square this circle?

Polling Punishment

A pair of polls released last week demonstrate that support for the minority party is suffering. CNN reports that “just 28% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably, the lowest mark for Democrats in the history of CNN’s polling going back to 1992.” Not to be outdone, a second poll on behalf of a Democratic super PAC, conducted by Unite the Country, found that as well as being less popular now than when Donald Trump was re-elected in November 2024, the vast majority of voters view Democrats as “woke,” “weak,” and “out of touch.”

An aggregate of surveys, courtesy of RealClear Polling, suggests the ailing party has an approval rating of 37% to 58.6% disapproval, putting it a startling 21.6 points underwater with the voting public. This figure is even more dire when compared with the Republicans’ 42% approval to 53% disapproval, a mere 11-point deficit.

But, as the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining. For Democrats in Washington, DC, it is that enthusiasm to vote in the 2026 midterms is actually pretty high, 72% of Democrats or Democrat-aligned voters. This suggests that, should the party find its messaging mojo, it could well right the listing ship. However, this comes with a major caveat. If the party continues on its current trajectory, the optimism for casting a midterm ballot could well turn into a backlash, making an already uphill battle impossibly steep.

The Teflon Don

President Trump had his own polling surprise. After days of being embroiled in mayhem thanks to the Jefferey Epstein reveal that never was, his approval rating among Republican voters has actually gone up.

The CNN poll showed that among Republican voters, Trump’s approval jumped two points from 86% to 88%. A similar situation occurred with Quinnipiac’s latest that found an increase of three points to the heady figure of 90% approval. CNN analyst Harry Enten noted that Trump is “at the apex, or close thereto, in terms of his popularity with Republican voters.” He explored the division between the full-court media press and what’s really happening in the wider world.

“On X, all you hear about is the Epstein files,” he said, “but how about out in the real public?” He pointed out that in the CNN polling, just one single Republican said that Epstein was a top priority. “Not 1%—one respondent,” he said. “Not much of a surprise that therefore Donald Trump’s approval rating has not suffered with Republicans,” Enten explained. “Because the bottom line is most Americans say it’s not high up on their priority list.”

Step One: Stop Digging?

Regardless of what happens in the midterms, Donald Trump’s days as a political candidate are over. Barring any black swan events, he won’t be impeached, and he will serve the remainder of his term at the head of the MAGA movement. By focusing on the man himself, Democrats are playing not just a losing hand, but one that has no appreciable return.