With the primary season in full swing, the dominant narrative coming from the political left is that the upcoming midterm elections are all about President Donald Trump. While the commander-in-chief is not on the ticket, his presence in the White House has become the cri de coeur for those hoping to win or retain office. And this is where expectant Democrats may run into problems.
A Midterm Beauty Pageant
The latest polling from NBC has Trump with just a 41% favorability rating. Not such a pretty picture. And yet, the two main figures on the left who hope to become the next president are a long way off even 47’s giddy lows.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has almost everything going for him. He has cultivated an image as the anti-Trump, taken to social media to “emulate” the current president, and can credibly claim to have the experience to run a large economy. Despite his resume and high profile, however, the governor is polling at a desultory 27% nationwide. Hardly the thing dreams are made of.
And what of former Vice President Kamala Harris? With a never-ending book tour to explain why she lost the presidential race in 2024, one might assume that her fortunes would be on the rise. After all, surely, she convinced some people that the historic loss was anyone else’s fault but her own. Apparently not.
Coming in at just 34% approval, Harris appears to be fading into irrelevance. While she may have hoped for a Nixon-style comeback, a book tour and the Democrat-friendly cable circuit is hardly the same as becoming a global statesman in the wilderness years.
Short of a major policy platform proposal – which would be largely performative as the president could simply veto any legislation he didn’t like – Democrats have decided that holding a referendum on Trump is their best bet to break the trifecta.
Limited Options
It’s well known that the party in power almost always suffers during midterms. With just a handful of exceptions, the electorate has taken the opportunity to express displeasure either as a long wave goodbye or a warning shot across the political bow. But midterms aren’t a presidential race. And ignoring one’s actual challenger in favor of a referendum on a man who will be leaving office in a few short years anyway is a major risk.
When the UK voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum, the establishment was shaken to its core. It toppled then-Prime Minister David Cameron and led to a succession of PMs who couldn’t quite wrestle with the fact that, as The Jam notably sang, “the public gets what the public wants.”
All instruments of state were set against the Brexit vote, and the electorate decided that the establishment needed a wake-up call.
Trump is mired in a new Middle East war, an economy that stubbornly refuses to be either fish or fowl, and his efforts with mass deportations appear to be a victim of its own success. And yet, the public is fully aware that no matter what, he will be leaving office in January 2029.
Democrat candidates and leadership are asking voters to cast a ballot in a zero-sum game. If they win, then the new crop of lawmakers faces a quasi-purgatory where any attempt at serious legislation faces a roadblock via presidential veto. If they lose, the situation remains precisely the same. It’s a risk with little reward, and if the party’s polling numbers are any indication, what they need now is a Hail Mary, not a referendum.
