The New York City Democratic Party primary for mayor took place yesterday, June 24, and with former Governor Andrew Cuomo conceding to socialist Zohran Mamdani, politics in the Big Apple may never be the same again. With ranked-choice voting, it was always going to be a close call, but a nearly decisive first round made the writing on the wall all too clear for Cuomo. What remains is the final contest in November that may not be the open-and-shut case New Yorkers have come to expect.
Primary Partnerships
Why was Cuomo so quick to concede? After all, with 11 candidates in the race, one might expect a certain number of second-, third-, and fourth-place votes to fall his way. However, it seems a loose coalition between Mamdani and city Comptroller Brad Lander was designed specifically to block the former governor’s return to front-line politics.
The two men “cross-endorsed” each other, meaning that voters who wanted Mamdani should put Lander as their second choice, and those who wanted Lander would designate Mamdani in their second slot. It’s a smart tactic for candidates who were trailing in second and third position for much of the contest and almost guarantees that, unless the first-place contender gets more than half of the initial round votes, they can be blocked.
For Mamdani, however, taking 43% of the first-round votes (compared to Cuomo’s 36%) was enough to force a concession. It seems he didn’t need the coalition after all.
While such a teaming may seem bizarre to the rational mind, it is no stranger than Mayor Ed Koch winning both the Democratic and Republican nominations in 1981.
A Democrat Destiny?
One might assume that whoever wins the Democratic Party primary will go on to win the November mayoral contest. And that’s probably a smart money bet. And yet, there are too many flies in this particular electoral ointment to take any result for granted. New York City is a bastion of left-liberal thinking, but just how far left is the voting majority willing to go?
Mr. Mamdani has a number of issues that may make him unpalatable to the wider city population. First is that he identifies as a socialist – or “Democratic Socialist,” as has become the more popular term for those not willing to admit they are a socialist. His most significant plans as would-be mayor include city-run grocery stores, a $30 per hour minimum wage, free childcare, rent freezes, and, naturally, arresting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For those who remember the quiet mayhem of former Mayor Bill de Blasio, another radical – no matter how well-intentioned – might be a step too far.
As Liberty Nation News Senior Political Analyst (and native New Yorker) Tim Donner notes:
“New York Democrats seem to have learned nothing from either the recent disastrous term of their progressive Mayor Bill de Blasio or their shellacking in the November election. Instead, they are doubling down on an ideology that has been thoroughly rejected by an overwhelming majority of the American population.
“New York has the largest Jewish population in the country and yet a pro-Palestinian Muslim socialist endorsed by AOC wins a decisive victory. The rest of the country must be looking on and wondering what the people of New York are thinking and whether the Democratic Party has completely lost its way.”
But it’s not just policy positions that could sink the Democratic Party nominee come November.
That’s a Lot of Dark Horses
One might assume that the actual election in November is now a two-horse race between Zohran Mamdani and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa (in his second attempt at taking a mayoral-sized bite of the Big Apple). In the normal run of things, such a supposition would be correct. But things aren’t as normal as they once were.
After delivering his concession speech, an aide to Mr. Cuomo suggested that his boss was leaving the door open to a possible third-party or independent run. While such an event may not happen, there’s no good reason to believe that it won’t. After all, in recent history, Michael Bloomberg won his 2009 re-election bid as an independent candidate, and in 1950, Vincent R. Impellitteri fended off the Tammany Hall machine to win as an independent.
And this year appears to hold perfect conditions for political upsets.
Mayor Eric Adams, once a darling of the Democratic Party, finds himself seeking re-election as the incumbent on an independent ticket. Accusations of dodgy dealings and then of cozying up to the Trump administration left him out in the cold in his own party, and while his approval ratings have sunk drastically, in a race with four big candidates, anything can happen.
Consider the following: Zohran Mamdani (Democrat), Curtis Sliwa (Republican), Andrew Cuomo (independent), and Mayor Eric Adams (independent) – that’s four men with big-name recognition, each vying for the top spot. How will it all play out electorally?
Gaming the Election
Notably, turnout for mayoral elections in NYC is notoriously low. In 2021, turnout was an estimated 21%; in 2017, it was 25%, and in 2013, a shockingly feeble 13%. If we jump back to 1965, we see an 80% turnout, with more than two and a half million voters casting ballots – and then a decline. All this to say, a candidate does not need a huge number of votes to take the crown in a three- or four-horse race.
Even if Andrew Cuomo declines to run, with three viable contenders, a candidate could win with just around a third of the votes.
In 1970, the United States Senate election was won by James Buckley – brother of conservative firebrand William F. Buckley Jr. – with just 38% of the vote, beating out Democratic candidate Richard Ottinger and Republican candidate Charles Goodell. His surprise win came about because each of the major party contenders was vying for the left-wing vote.
Both Ottinger and Goodell declared during a series of debates that bail – specifically the $100,000 bail for the Panther 21 (the Black Panther Party) – was “unconstitutional” and that the war in Vietnam would lead to “more Vietnams.” Essentially, both men were running on similar platforms. This left the route wide open for the shocking Buckley win.
Fast forward 55 years: We see potentially three candidates on varying degrees of the left and one on the right – and it is well within the realms of possibility that one hopeful could prevail in this scenario with just 30% of the vote. In real terms, that’s (based on the last election turnout) just 300,000 ballots.
All eyes will be on New York City come November, and strategists from all parties would do well to take note of the lessons and the verdict it delivers.
