Conspiracy theories always overcomplicate the situation. As the saying goes, when you hear hoofbeats think horses, not zebras. So as much fun as some people are having by playing their own game of American Kremlinology, there are several plain reasons why President Trump has been vocally supportive of Israel’s mission in Iran so far.
Stripping away the overly clever or sinister hypotheticals is a useful way to assess what Trump sees when he looks at the events of the past week, because it is what anybody would see when casting a clear-eyed glance at the Mideast.
Trump loves a winner: “The Israeli military estimates it will achieve its objectives against Iran’s nuclear program within a week or two,” the Times of Israel reports today after the IDF briefed journalists. Regardless of that time frame, the story notes, Israel “has so far bombed two Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, Natanz and Isfahan, and caused significant damage to both. It has also killed at least nine key nuclear scientists who were working on a bomb, and struck several other facilities supporting Iran’s nuclear program, including offices and command centers.”
Israel’s operational control of Iranian airspace is remarkable. Even Trump himself couldn’t contain his enthusiasm, saying “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran” (emphasis added).
So far, Trump likes what he sees and doesn’t want to stop seeing it.
Art of the deal: Trump isn’t at the flea market. He set his terms and Iran knows where to find him when Khamenei is ready to accept them. Israel is making Trump’s job much easier while bolstering his self-image as a guy who won’t let the Iranians take him to the cleaners the way they did Barack Obama, as Trump said upon launching his first successful presidential campaign.
Promises made, promises kept: Trump said he would stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. If all he has to do is sit back and watch it happen, why wouldn’t he? He’s the U.S. president, it’s on his watch, and he knows he’ll be forever credited with the outcome whether or not he sends U.S. bombers to finish the job. Benny Gantz, Bibi Netanyahu’s rival, was on CNN today praising Trump to the hilt. For his part, Netanyahu has no trouble doing the same on a regular basis. And it’s not mere flattery, it’s the truth: If Israel finishes the job, even if it does so alone, Trump will genuinely deserve a lot of credit for it.
Facts on the ground: Look no further than Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria for insight into a basic tenet of international relations—win and you’re in. Once upon a time, Ahmed al-Sharaa was an al-Qaeda-trained terrorist fighting U.S. forces in Iraq. Until six months ago, the U.S. still maintained a $10 million bounty on Sharaa’s head. What happened? He won. He led the successful ousting of the regime of Bashar al-Assad and is now the declared president of Syria. He went from wanted man to desirable ally in no time as far as the Arab and Muslim states of the broader Mideast were concerned. Everybody wants influence in the new Syria, and last month in Riyadh, Trump announced that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman convinced him to drop the sanctions against Syria that have been in place since the Assad regime. “Oh, what I do for the crown prince,” Trump had said.
When it comes to Israel’s counteroffensive against Hamas in Gaza, Trump has certainly shown more patience for the IDF’s longest war than other U.S. presidents have displayed during past wars. But that is no doubt in part because the IDF has gotten results. Fact is, the IDF is the strong horse in that war. So long as Trump sees the new Israel-Iran clash in a similar way, his support is simply a recognition of reality.
And what of the other horse? Well, tellingly, Russia has distanced itself from Iran, and Hezbollah—Iran’s most successful creation since the 1979 revolution—has done the same. That tells Trump that the world reads the conflict the same way right now.
Flexibility: At this point, Trump hasn’t overcommitted to anything and hasn’t ceded control of his own ability to adjust as he sees fit. That is why Israel needs to finish the job before declaring victory.
