“The dog did nothing in the night-time,” a confused Inspector Gregory said to Sherlock Holmes, who replied, “That was the curious incident.”
Without glossing over the losses suffered by American, Israeli or coalition forces — not to mention the civilians targeted by Iran’s terrorist regime — in the first few days of Operation Epic Fury, Iran is so far the dog that didn’t bark. Or more, accurately, tries to bark but not much comes out.
Or at least that’s my impression after seeing a nifty map of all of Iran’s attacks, courtesy of a generally reliable X user calling himself Plane Fag.
Sorry, I don’t name X users.
“I popped over to GeoConfirmed’s website… and it verified the impression I’d got from my OSINT feed: Iran is losing this war, badly,” PF posted early Monday. “Because if they weren’t, the Gulf states part of the map below would be absolutely awash in red icons.”
Here’s PF’s map:
The data is roughly 30 hours old now, but the current map — which you can see for yourself at this link — doesn’t look all that much worse.
“It’s normal to go after an enemy’s C3 (command, control, communications) to disrupt their ability to pass on orders and co-ordinate attacks, but by erasing almost all of Iran’s most senior military and political leadership in one stroke, there wasn’t even anyone to give those orders even if C3 had been intact,” PF added. “Operating on their own initiative and/or pre-planned strikes, they’re just not massing enough fires to achieve salvo weights that can effectively saturate defenses.”
Translated into civilian speak: You’ve got to fire a lot of missiles or drones all at once at a single target to overwhelm defenses, and Iran either lacks the physical ability or the command cohesion to do so.
Roughly half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers are believed to be destroyed, and that’s a number that can only go up. I’d also add that Tehran announced they’d closed the Straits of Hormuz, but the spice oil still flows.
So, yes, the war’s going pretty well.
There are at least three caveats, though.
The longer the bombings continue, the greater the likelihood of being “one mechanical failure or magical BB away from having an American held prisoner or worse,” as CDR Salamander put it in that column I linked to yesterday.
Along that a similar line, Iran’s terror attacks (via missile, drone, or direct) are meant to create cracks in the coalition (even such as it is), and Tehran might have some success there. Russian strongman Vladimir Putin got on the phone Monday with Emirati and Qatari leaders, and according to the Kremlin both agreed that both men “emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire and a return to the political and diplomatic process.”
(But a caveat within the caveat: That’s to be expected of both Qatar and the UAE. Keep an eye on Riyadh, though. If they start to waver, then SecState Marco Rubio will be knee-deep in shuttle diplomacy before breakfast.)
Finally, there’s the missile/interceptor logic. Does the coalition run out of ballistic missile and drone defenses before Iran’s offensive capabilities are smothered, or the regime collapses/cries uncle? All while the clock ticks on the coalition and that “magical BB” getting a lucky hit on an F-35.
Tehran’s leaders — whoever they are at this point — seem to believe they can wait it out. There was a report on Sunday that Trump offered a ceasefire which Tehran rejected. Diplomatic efforts continue, but Tehran remains intransigent.
So while the war goes well, Tehran either seems to think it knows something we don’t, or they’ve badly miscalculated once more.
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