The deadline draws near for Iran to come to terms with President Donald Trump. On Sunday (April 5), he issued a 48-hour ultimatum; tonight is the proverbial Last Chance Saloon for Tehran leadership. While third-party negotiations have taken place, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains a bone of contention. Trump has told allies that if they want it open, go get it. Iran seems to imagine it has a magic bullet with the waterway and that it can gain concessions by threatening the flow of oil. Who has miscalculated?
Is Iran Missing the Point?
Reuters reports that Pakistan was acting as a go-between in the latest round of negotiations, and it seems the third-party nation has steep hills ahead. Trump made his own position strikingly clear in a TruthSocial post, saying that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the **** Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.” At the White House on Monday, the president outlined the difficulties his administration is facing. He said, “We’re giving them till tomorrow [Tuesday evening], 8 o’clock Eastern time, and after that, they’re going to have no bridges… They’re going to have no power plants.” “They have no communication. In fact, the biggest problem we have in our negotiation is that they can’t communicate,” he declared. “We’re communicating like they used to communicate 2,000 years ago, with children bringing a note back and forth.” “I can tell you, they’re negotiating,” Trump added. “We think in good faith. We’re going to find out.”
Some would suggest this is a pretty clear set of demands and consequences. Tehran, conversely, appears not to believe the president will follow through.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said current negotiations were “incompatible with ultimatums and threats to commit war crimes.” He continued:
“Iran does not hesitate to clearly express what it considers its legitimate demands and doing so should not be interpreted as a sign of compromise, but rather as a reflection of its confidence in defending its positions.”
Baghaei also pooh-poohed the idea of a ceasefire, suggesting that it would give the United States time to regroup. It is this kind of rhetoric that undermines Iran’s “position of strength” bravado. The notion that the United States needs to regroup is approaching farcical. And the dramatic incursions behind enemy lines to rescue downed American crewmen proved just that.
A Demonstration of Force and Will
While the Tehran leadership was celebrating the shooting down of an F-15, US troops launched a daring and audacious rescue mission that not only brought the airmen home but showed just how easily American troops could access and exit the country. Almost every aspect of the war has been precise in terms of executing goals. Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, as are a number of his top colleagues. The Iranian navy and air force are essentially nonexistent, and the United States was able to go deep into enemy territory to extricate a potential POW.
Iran was left floundering in embarrassment. After all, if the entire might of its military cannot capture or kill a lone man, it suggests operational strength and coordination, even within its own borders, is sorely lacking. And from a propaganda perspective, how does this daring raid by US forces that used decoy explosions and misinformation to bring a soldier home not become the basis for a future Hollywood blockbuster?
So, where does that leave Iran with just hours to go before the deadline?
Last Card to Play Ahead of Deadline
Tehran seems to believe that it holds an ace card — blocking the Strait of Hormuz will force other nations to apply pressure to Trump. After all, US presidents have long been held to ransom in their endeavors through global diplomacy and international pressures. But Donald Trump isn’t Barack Obama. There is no pallet of cash to be given and false promises to be gleefully accepted and paraded as solid truths.
If Trump says he is going to increase the bombing of key strategic infrastructure, it’s a healthy bet that he’s going to do so. Kharg Island could be a potential target, too. And ultimately, if it is the Strait of Hormuz that is keeping Iran in the fight – and foreign allies are unwilling to go in and secure it – Trump is apparently ready to do whatever it takes to open the waterway back up. The clock is ticking.
