Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and the Domino Theory

The once-discredited hypothesis might be proving true – again.

Those who lived through the horrors of the Vietnam War will remember the justification for American involvement in a conflict on the other side of the world. It was called the domino theory, based on the notion that communism in one country would trigger a chain reaction, toppling neighboring nations like dominoes. And while the theory has largely been discredited because it is so closely associated with a lost war Americans would rather forget, it is not without logic or merit. In fact, the domino theorists were eventually proven right after the US quit the war, as South Vietnam was swallowed up by North Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos also went Communist, and Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines normalized ties with Communist China. History is replete with events of great magnitude in one country that, for better or worse, spilled over into other nations and regions. So, since Venezuela has fallen, Iran is falling, and Cuba may well be next, let’s consider whether a less regional and more global application of the domino theory could be in play right now.

The Domino Theory in Practice

First, we need to examine another time when the theory proved to be entirely valid in a case opposite from Southeast Asia. This time, instead of adopting communism, it was all about discarding it. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, with Soviet influence behind the Iron Curtain finally dwindling under the liberalization of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Communist governments in the enslaved countries of Eastern Europe were overthrown at warp speed. First came Poland, then Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania. By the end of 1990, every Soviet puppet regime in Europe had been toppled. And in 1991, the unthinkable happened: The Soviet Union was mercifully dissolved and discarded in the ash heap of history. This was a textbook example of the validity of the domino theory.

Those countries were all in a single region, so, you might ask, how would the theory apply to Venezuela/Cuba and Iran, separated by thousands of miles? The answer lies not in geography, but in the prevailing ideology of the times. It has been said that when the United States sneezes, Europe gets a cold. Following the violent aftermath of the George Floyd affair in 2020, many European countries and the world at large turned leftward. But with the widespread failures of leftist governments and the return of Donald Trump to the White House, we are witnessing a stunning reversal.

Iran has been brought low, its streets awash with the blood and bodies of protesters, its nuclear ambitions shattered, its murderous proxies decapitated, and its neighbors joining forces against the Islamist regime. In South America, long dominated by leftist regimes aligned with Iran, Russia, and/or China, free market governance is taking hold. Argentina shook off the shackles of ruinous hyperinflation with the election of libertarian Javier Milei. Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay have also moved rightward, while the remaining left-wing governments, especially in Bolivia and Colombia, face mounting pressure to implement economic and cultural reforms.

Will Iran Be the Next Domino?

You can be certain that the thousands demonstrating in the streets throughout Iran are well aware of President Trump’s daring capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. And it would be folly not to believe they felt empowered by it – and, of course, by Trump’s demonstrated willingness to do whatever it takes to protect American interests. They also know of the president’s devotion to ending the slaughter of innocents, as demonstrated not just in Iran but in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump has little direct interest in that bloody conflict, which has cost more than a million lives, and could have left it to Europe to navigate, but has, for the sake of humanity, invested considerable political capital to try to end it.

The times they are a-changing, and mostly for the better around the globe. While Russia, China, and Iran grow weaker and more isolated with Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” aimed at reversing their growing influence in our hemisphere, the Middle East has finally reached a state of relative peace, with fresh alliances between Israel and many of its Arab and Muslim neighbors now in place. Whatever government follows the Maduro dictatorship is certain to improve the lives of Venezuelans and make the world safer. The totalitarian government of Cuba, dependent on Maduro for its economic survival, is on its last legs – and so is the brutal theocracy in Iran. It is not only within specific regions, but throughout the world, that dominoes can fall. We shall soon discover whether this latest test case for an expanded domino theory will prove to be as salient as it once was in Southeast Asia and behind the Iron Curtain.