Bringing in the big guns: On Monday night, Donald Trump abruptly left the G7 Summit in Canada to focus on the Middle East. Emmanuel Macron suggested he did so to work on an Israeli-Iranian ceasefire. Nonsense, responded Trump, who made clear that he left to pursue “a real end” to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. By Tuesday afternoon, we learned what Trump thinks could bring such an end: a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, most notably its secretive underground enrichment site in Fordow. What would that strike entail, and just how badly would it cripple Tehran’s chances of producing a nuke?
The Fordow facility is a sprawling complex dug deep within a mountain base that is believed to house Iran’s most sensitive nuclear equipment some 300 feet underground. The setup means the site is effectively shielded from all militaries but one: the United States, which possesses
the bunker-buster bombs required to efficiently obliterate deeply buried targets. Typically, getting those bombs to their target would be perilous, but Israeli strikes have demolished Iran’s air defenses and taken control of its airspace. As a result, “this mission shouldn’t be overly difficult or risky,” veteran military strategist Bill Roggio told our Adam Kredo.
It would likely take multiple bombs to render Fordow inoperable, according to Roggio—and doing so could set Tehran’s nuclear program back a decade or longer, given that it took Iran more than seven years to build the site. “Any effort to bring these facilities back online,” writes Kredo, “would pose a monumental challenge for Tehran, particularly since Israel assassinated a cadre of high-level Iranian nuclear scientists who shared decades of expertise.”
Without American support, Israel still has options to target Fordow, though they come with more risk and less reward. The Jewish state could, for example, drop lighter bombs on successive runs that would leave the facility hamstrung but not destroyed. It could spearhead cyber attacks that disable the site’s electrical power and other support functions. It could even send commando units to destroy Fordow from within.
Trump has signaled that those options may not be necessary. “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he posted Tuesday on his Truth Social platform. “Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured ‘stuff.’ Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”
READ MORE: What a US Strike on Iran’s Fordow Enrichment Facility Would Mean for Tehran’s Nuclear Program
We all scream for airstrikes: Mainstream media pundits have spent much of their time over the past several days discussing an apparent rift within the MAGA base over Donald Trump’s support for Israel and its strikes on Iran. A new poll raises the question: What rift?
The poll, conducted by data analytics firm GrayHouse shortly after Israel launched its campaign, shows that 83 percent of Trump voters “strongly support” Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Eighty-five percent say Iran poses a threat to American national security, 74 percent say they’re very concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, and 86 percent say Trump should provide weapons “to help Israel protect itself from Iranian attacks.” Ninety-five percent of respondents, meanwhile, say they approve of Trump’s job performance, a 7-point increase from a League of American Workers poll conducted before the strikes, which placed Trump’s approval rating among his own voters at 88 percent.
Here’s how a senior congressional official who reviewed the poll responded to its findings: “There’s no Republican divide. Republicans back Israel. The pay-to-play MAGA ‘influencers’ have been exposed as having zero sway with Trump and zero sway on the Hill. They’re a joke and the good news is now we don’t even need to even pretend to take them seriously.” Ouch.
READ MORE: Poll Finds Overwhelming Support for Israeli Strikes—and for Trump’s Response—Among MAGA Base
In other news:
- Where’s Ali? Iran’s supreme leader hasn’t shown his face since a televised address he delivered from an undisclosed location on Friday, but the United States knows “exactly” where he’s “hiding,” according to Donald Trump. “He is an easy target, but is safe there—We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump said Tuesday. “But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”
- A real shame: The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog announced that Israeli strikes made “direct impacts” on Iran’s “underground enrichment halls at Natanz.”
- Roughly one year after the Economist declared Israel was “alone,” Germany’s chancellor had this to say about the Jewish state’s campaign against Iran: “This is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us. We are also victims of the regime. This mullah regime has brought death and destruction to the world.”
