What Should You Look For in the Kentucky Derby This Year? – PJ Media

The first Saturday in May is Derby Day, when Louisville, Kentucky puts on its best duds, the ladies don their extravagant hats, and money pours through the betting windows at Churchill Downs. This prompted me to pick up the phone and call my friend Derek Simon.

Using data from thousands of races and games, Derek devotes himself to separating fact from fiction, whether on the turf, the gridiron, the baseball diamond, or the hardwood.

You can find his website and betting guide here, and his videos on the 2025 run for the roses here.

What should the casual fan look for in the Kentucky Derby this year?

I honestly think the biggest thing for the casual fan to look for is a good price. I think that’s so ignored in the Derby, yet it’s so important. In the last video I did, I talked about a study they did on sports betting. In football games, you have a point spread, making it a 50/50 proposition, but 65% of bettors bet on the favorite. They then adjusted the lines to be even more disadvantageous for favorites. So instead of a 7-point line, maybe they make it a 10-point line. 

So seven went to 10, whatever, I don’t know if they were that extreme, but the majority of people still bet on the favorites. And that’s a situation where you know you would have an edge betting on the other team. 

So I think people get really locked into who they like. I just don’t think that in the Kentucky Derby, you should do that, especially given that the odds tend to be condensed in the Derby, anyway. You don’t get the massive long shots, as you do on a Breeders’ Cup Day. So look for value. If you like a horse, that’s great, but get a good price on it.

 So the odds tell you a lot.

The odds already tell you who the best horses are, so to only concentrate on finding the best horse doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Now, interestingly, in the Preakness Stakes, it does. You get a lot of favorites who win the Preakness Stakes, especially horses coming from the Derby. But in the Derby, I just think it’s a mistake. I think a lot of people got sucked in when they changed the entry rules. I believe it was six years in a row that the favorite won. But that is not the norm. In a video I just did, looking over many decades, favorites have won only 15% of the time. 

Which is still good, because it’s a 20-horse field. But it’s not great. And it does tell you if it’s 15%, you can’t take 3-1 or 7- 2 in a 20-horse field. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense.

In your betting guide and video, you talk about the importance of big races and big wins in the past performances of Derby horses to determine who will improve in this race. Does that carry over to regular races, or not?

That’s a great question. William Quirin, in his book, talked about a big win in the last race and its high impact value. I want to say at the time that it was either a positive factor, a positive ROI factor, or it was very close… he defined the big win a little bit differently than the way I do. 

Still, it absolutely is a high impact value factor even in regular racing. Because at whatever class level you are, it shows the separation between contenders. You remember that old angle where people would look at maiden races and look for a horse that was second, and look for a big separation between second and third.

You kind of saw that in the Santa Anita Derby with Baeza, which finished second to Journalism. Journalism and Baeza, we’re about nine and a half lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and, you know, obviously in maiden races that can be a big factor, too. So big wins, that big separation between contenders, I think is very important, especially if you see it on turf, because it’s much rarer on turf.

Yes, turf is usually a cavalry charge.

In my guide, I noted a fact about the great horse Frankel. And I think Frankel was one of the best in ages. Of his 14 races, he won eight of them by five lengths or more, and he was a turf horse. So that tells you how good that horse was.

How is horse racing holding up against sports betting, which is now its main competitor?

That is one of the things that drove me out of the sport. I’ve been harping on things such as the Racino model for at least ten to 15 years. I’ve talked about what a dumb model that is for racing. And now, of course, they’re talking about decoupling.

Here in Florida, people act surprised by it. From a business standpoint, and you and I have both written about business, you are not going to look at something that has very little overhead and is very profitable, which is your sports betting, casino betting, and then look at horse racing, where not only do you have a higher overhead, you need more land and capital. And then you have all the litigation aspects to it. So you’re not making money. 

Purses have continued to rise for years. The handle has gone down. I’m talking in real dollars. So racing is in big trouble, and I’m not confident at this point. Having been in it so long and seeing the previous responses, I think racing will greatly consolidate, and you will have a lot fewer tracks running.

Any thoughts about your favorites in this year’s Derby? 

I saw Baeza was 18-1. That’s a ludicrous price on him. If you like Journalism, you’ve got to like Baeza. So I don’t understand that. I will be doing exactly what I mentioned. I’ll be looking for an overlay.

But the horse that I like the most in this year’s Derby is Luxor Cafe. He’s got a tremendous number of positives, but one huge negative, which is shipping in from Japan. We just don’t really know how fast he is. 

His Racing Post ratings were great, but I heard Andrew Beyer talk about it. He was watching the card the day of his final prep race, and there were some older, non-distinguished horses that ran faster than he did in other races. So Byer said Luxor Cafe was not that fast. And that’s a viable argument, but I couldn’t tell you one way or the other. But everything else fits for Luxor Cafe. So that will be my top choice, and then a bunch of other value plays.

I have Luxor Cafe in my Kentucky Oaks double. So we’ll see how that plays out. 

Yeah, me too. And I have several others. Just as we talked about earlier, that’s the tough thing about the Derby. There are so many horses that you could use. But if you were to ask me who your top pick is, if he were an American horse, there’s no question Luxor Cafe would be my top pick. So I’ve got to make him my top pick. Again, I’ll be looking. He’s hanging at around 12-1, which I think is a really good price. So I think there’s value there too.

Thanks. Good luck.