Where Is the Ukraine Peace Plan Now?

There has been a lot of talk about an imminent Ukraine peace deal, but little substance.

When it comes to peace deals, US President Donald Trump is indefatigable. He has made it clear he won’t rest until there is an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Again, the US commander-in-chief has developed a peace deal that seems to have legs. At least the three sides – Ukraine, Russia, and the US –  are giving the proposal serious consideration. After more than 1,360 days of constant fighting and the loss of over a million lives, a 19-point plan is now under consideration. If implemented, it will stop the carnage. It’s whether the plan will come to pass that remains in question.

The Plan, as It Stands

The plan proposed by Trump, as revealed by Axios, gives Ukraine security assurances with teeth, backed by US protections. Any future Russian attack on Ukraine will be considered an attack on the NATO alliance. Ukraine will forgo any aspirations to become a NATO member, however, and will not allow foreign troops on its territory. Ukraine will cap its military force at 600,000 soldiers. Russia will agree to a non-aggression pact banning it from invading its neighbors. There is a provision for “territorial realism” whereby Ukraine recognizes it has lost Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as “de facto” Russian. A demilitarized zone will be established between the opposing forces, and the lines of battle will be frozen.

There is a part of the plan that emphasizes the economic rebuilding of Ukraine through a Ukraine Development Fund, with an initial $100 billion drawn from sequestered Russian assets. The plan also includes a joint energy projects and European Union market access. Current economic sanctions on Russia will be phased out. Lastly, there will be a complete prisoner swap and a family reunification for all children and adults kidnapped and relocated in Russia. For both sides, there will be a ban on Nazi ideology and activities. Ukraine will confirm its non-nuclear status, and the International Atomic Energy Agency will oversee the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia has seen the plan, so nothing should surprise the Kremlin.

The time may have come when Russia’s President Vladimir Putin sees no benefit to further foot-dragging in coming to some closure to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As General Jack Keane, former vice chief of the Army and chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, observed in an interview with Fox News:

“The fact remains, where is Russia on all this? Russia has not made…one concession in all these negotiations…When it comes down to it, war is always a test of wills. And what Putin is trying to do is wear down the will of the United States, the Europeans, and the Ukrainians so that he can get major, major concessions to his advantage. We’ll see what Mr. Putin eventually has to say about this deal. And, hopefully, there’s something in here that is, where he’s willing to make the major concession to go to a ceasefire and at least stabilize the situation even if further negotiations have to take place.”

Peace in Ukraine Remains a Challenge

Reports from Geneva, Switzerland, where the peace negotiations between the US and Ukraine are taking place, are encouraging, with just a couple of sticking points remaining. However, if only one of those thorny issues is a showstopper, reaching an agreement will be tough. To make more of a muddle of the talks, the Ukrainian negotiating team suffered a significant setback when Andriy Yermak, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff and lead negotiator, abruptly resigned when it was learned that his home had been raided as part of a $100 million corruption investigation. The absence of Yermak will throw a wrench into the continuity of the discussions.

For his part, at a November 27 press conference, President Putin was as forthcoming as he has been since the Trump administration began. After a Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Bishtek, Kyrgyzstan, he spoke candidly to reporters. When asked about the piece proposal, Putin observed: “In general, we agree that this could form the basis for future agreements. However, it would be inappropriate for me to speak now of any final versions, as these do not exist.” When it comes to the actual negotiations going forward, Putin told reporters: “There are, unquestionably, areas where we need to sit down and engage in serious discussions on specific points, and all such matters must be framed in proper diplomatic language.”

Nonetheless, if anyone believes that the issue of giving up territory for peace for either side is not a huge stumbling block, Putin put the issue in clear terms. A reporter from the Russian news source Kommersant Daily asked, “Are you going to insist that the territorial issue, above all in Donbass, should be resolved here and now, and for good?” Putin responded: “When the Ukrainian troops leave the territories they occupy, then the hostilities will cease. If they do not leave, we will achieve it militarily. That’s that.” The rigidity of his response suggests that who’s on who’s territory is going to be a Mount Everest challenge. If Putin were to give up territory over 600,000 Russan soldiers fought and died to occupy over the past nearly four years, how would he square that with the families of the fallen?

In a glass-half-full perspective, General Keane said: “Look at the progress that appears to have been made in Geneva. Give Secretary Rubio and others who have participated in that with the Ukrainians to get to the point where we are right now. From what I understand we are down to just a couple of issues that still need to be worked.” That job will fall to a delegation headed by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who is expected to be in Moscow the week of December 1. We may be very close to the end of the most devastating war since World War II. The next few weeks will determine if the world gets a Christmas present of peace in Ukraine.

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.