Who’s Winning the Shutdown Blame Game?

The optics are all that seem to matter.

A month into the government shutdown, and it seems that the horse-trading on what should be included in the funding package has become little more than a sideshow. What appears to matter right now is political optics and which party can credibly claim to have held the other side to account. Members of Congress may have their individual narratives down pat, but is the public ready to buy?

Shutdown Shenanigans

Historically, the party in power (especially when it has the trifecta) gets the blame for any extended shutdown. After all, when you control the levers of power, there’s not much of a point in blaming those who have none. And congressional Democrats have a good claim to say that the ongoing furlough could and should be solved by those in the majority. But that’s not quite how the system works.

Certainly, a majority has more control than a minority, but the system is set up so that, barring a three-fifths caucus on one side of the aisle, negotiation and horse-trading are both expected and encouraged. And that’s where the optics trouble begins for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

The current continuing resolution that the GOP is offering (and already passed in the House of Representatives) is known as a “clean resolution,” meaning it’s basically the same as what was already voted on by a bipartisan majority back in March. Put simply: It was good enough for Democrats a few months ago. The issue appears to be that Schumer was pilloried by many in his party for going along with it back then, and he doesn’t seem to have the political capital to weather such a storm again.

GOP Games

However, this doesn’t mean that Republicans are entirely blameless; after all, as the party in power, its members have a duty to at least keep the lights on. With Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) displaying an obstinacy that is rare in the party (and likely welcomed by many GOP supporters after years of caving), he is putting Democrats in a difficult position.

Currently, there is nothing on the table for Democrats to walk away with or for them to claim even a minor win. No wins at all equals no good reason to parlay. Over the last four weeks, we’ve heard tentative requests for $20 billion here, a promise of a vote there, and yet Johnson remains steadfast that the bill is the bill, take it or leave it.

It seems a DC compromise is dead in the water – which brings us to the ramifications.

Who’s on First?

It’s difficult to tell who is taking the brunt of negative public opinion over the shutdown, but there are several indicators. Polling from Quinnipiac University suggests that the GOP receives slightly more of the blame, 45% to 39%, largely along party lines. Among independents, that gap grows to 48% for Republicans against just 32% for the minority party.

However, CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten revealed some surprising news. When asked for a response to Sen. Schumer saying “every day gets better for us” (regarding the shutdown), he unloaded a heap of shock-and-awe polling. Since the beginning of the shutdown, the GOP brand has actually improved by two points in net popularity ratings. What’s more, the GOP in Congress has gained a whopping five points in approval.

Digging deeper, Enten probed where the gains were coming from. “It’s not just with the base [12 points up], look at the middle electorate … among independents it’s up eight points,” he noted. That’s quite a leap in just a month.

As things stand now, both Republicans and Democrats have much to gain by ending the shutdown. But there may be a greater political prize for keeping the contention going.