With control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs and their personal futures at stake, the 470 members of the House and Senate facing the voters in November are laser-focused on the upcoming midterm elections. President Donald Trump has an obvious interest in the outcome and has promised to devote as much time and energy to Republican candidates in this final federal election of his presidency as he did for himself in 2024. But Trump understands the long sweep of history and the near-inevitable rise of the out-of-power party two years after presidential elections. Whether he admits it or not, he has surely accepted that, no matter how unpopular they remain, Democrats stand as the odds-on favorites to overcome the GOP’s razor-thin majority and seize control of the House.
The overarching question, then, is how damaging the loss of the House and/or the Senate would be to Trump and the last two years of his presidency.
Democrats Will Rinse and Repeat
Let’s start with the widely accepted premise that Democrats freshly in charge of the House will revert to their tactics of Trump’s first term and take a third bite of the impeachment apple. Remembering that grounds for impeaching a president are essentially whatever the House says they are, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) or whoever is elected Speaker of the House can pick from a long menu of his party’s grievances. The problem is that Trump will not be up for re-election. Never in memory has the out party devoted its primary attention to a lame-duck president. To undertake impeachment once more will only reaffirm to voters that Democrats are so obsessed with this president that they are willing to throw time-tested political strategy out the window.
At the same time, the Dems will undoubtedly draw from the elements of the political playbook common to both parties. They will unleash an unending string of investigations and hearings designed to embarrass or shame allies of the president. They will propose legislation designed to force Republicans to assume unpopular positions. Only able to count on two years of control of their chamber(s), they will make hay while the sun shines. With the GOP trifecta broken, no significant legislation will reach the president’s desk.
This is what happens when one-party control is severed. The out party that despises the sitting president and takes control of one or both branches of the legislature unleashes its pent-up frustration like the release valve on a steam engine. It happens every time power shifts in Congress or the White House.
That said, an argument can plausibly be made that Trump will be more immune from the effects of losing Congress than any president in memory.
The inability to advance a legislative agenda will have limited consequences for the president because he jammed most of his top priorities into the One Big Beautiful Bill that became law in 2025. It featured tax cuts, reduced federal spending, the elimination of taxes on overtime, tips, and Social Security, and enhanced border security, among other reforms. It was a reconciliation bill not subject to the usual filibuster and thus required only a simple majority in the Senate, and a second such bill is now in the works for later this year. It will focus on health care, welfare, and spending cuts, with talks also revolving around deficit reduction, entitlement reform, and more for defense, especially in light of Operation Epic Fury in Iran. While Trump won’t leave the White House with all the new legislation he undoubtedly desires, he will have accomplished much.
Trump and the Limits of Executive Authority
Even more important than legislation, though, is the president’s use of his executive power. While every president has employed his authority to command certain actions or policies, Trump has turned it into an art form. While such orders are not law and are famously reversible when a new president takes office, Trump has designed most of them to become all but permanent beyond his time in office. For example, the president closed off the border with the stroke of a pen — would any successor dare open it again? Would the 48th president try to, for example, reinstate Public Broadcasting, support biological men competing in women’s sports, or re-establish USAID? Those so-called 80-20 issues will not reverse anytime soon.
Trump has issued a whopping total of 249 executive orders, 58 memoranda, and 133 proclamations since he returned to the White House, including more in 2025 than any president in history. Many of them test the outer limits of executive authority, and some of them have been rejected by courts. But the president’s willingness to push the envelope as far as possible will hardly be stifled just because Democrats have broken the trifecta. As Republicans found out the hard way over the years, federal agencies controlled by the executive branch have tremendous power to expand and regulate. But with Trump in the Oval Office, they have used their power to do the opposite, to shrink and deregulate. And the perpetually undaunted 47th president will continue to control those agencies for 26 months after the midterm elections, no matter the outcome.
The 47th president surely cares about who the 48th will be. He will heavily support the 2028 GOP nominee and will try to avoid damaging his prospects, whether that be Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or someone else. But he will not do so at the cost of compromising on the final fulfillment of an agenda so audacious that only he would dare adopt it. Every president wants a compliant Congress, but heading into the sunset of an era he has defined, Trump will, for better or worse, not be deterred. Between the legislative accomplishments already in the books, his liberal use of executive orders, federal agencies bent on significant reform, and the continuing power of the bully pulpit, this president will not need a Republican-controlled Congress in 2027 to secure his unique place in American history.
